Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 15, 2002 at 04:15 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update January 12, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 14. Solar wind speed ranged between 421 and 512 km/sec. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 229.0, the planetary A index was 8 (3-hour K indices: 3212 3322, Boulder K indices: 3222 3331). Region 9772 was quiet and stable and will rotate over the southwest limb on January 16. Region 9773 decayed slowly and still has a magnetic delta structure in its central section. Further M class flaring is possible. The region is about to rotate off the visible disk. Region 9775 developed slowly and has a magnetic delta structure. M class flaring is likely. Region 9776 decayed and was quiet, the region could become spotless today. Region 9778 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9779 was mostly quiet and stable, as was region 9781. Region 9782 developed slowly and has a magnetic delta structure. M class flares are possible. Region 9783 was quiet and stable. Region 9784 decayed and is spotless early on Jan.16. Region 9785 developed slowly and may be capable of producing occasional minor M class flares. Flares and CMEs A total of 4 M class events were recorded on January 14. A very long duration M4.4 event peaked at 06:27 UTC. This was associated with an unusually large and bright CME which first appeared over the southwest limb in LASCO C3 images and later became a full halo CME. The source of the LDE was probably behind the southwest limb. Region 9775 produced an M1.0 flare at 01:36 and an M1.1 flare at 22:46 UTC. Region 9782 was the source of an M1.7/2N flare at 01:56 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level. Coronal holes A small coronal hole in the southern hemisphere will rotate into a geoeffective position on January 16-17. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 16-18. A coronal stream could begin to influence the field on January 19 and cause unsettled to active conditions. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9772 2002.01.03 1 S17W67 0030 HSX 9773 2002.01.04 12 N16W70 0460 FKI beta-gamma-delta 9775 2002.01.07 21 S06W57 0220 FAI beta-gamma-delta 9776 2002.01.07 3 N10W40 0010 CSO 9777 2002.01.08 S06W14 plage 9778 2002.01.08 24 S16W05 0120 EAI beta-gamma 9779 2002.01.08 1 N29W12 0100 HSX 9781 2002.01.11 1 S04E25 0060 HSX 9782 2002.01.11 9 N07E33 0240 DAO beta-delta 9783 2002.01.12 2 S11E52 0140 HSX 9784 2002.01.13 1 S28E44 0000 AXX now spotless 9785 2002.01.13 6 N11E41 0200 DAO Total number of sunspots: 81 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8, +1.1) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (111.2 predicted, +1.4) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (111.7 predicted, +0.5) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (110.7 predicted, -1.0) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (108.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (106.3 predicted, -1.7) 2001.12 235.1 131.8 (103.0 predicted, -3.3) 2002.01 220.2 (1) 85.3 (2) (99.4 predicted, -3.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]