Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 14, 2002 at 05:30 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update January 12, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on January 13. Solar wind speed ranged between 477 and 560 km/sec. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 240.7, the planetary A index was 11 (3-hour K indices: 2243 3223, Boulder K indices: 1133 3322). Region 9772 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9773 decayed slightly but still has a magnetic delta structure in its central section. M class flaring is likely. Region 9775 developed slowly and appears to have a magnetic delta structure early on Jan.14. M class flaring is likely to continue. Region 9776 developed slowly late in the day. Region 9778 was mostly unchanged and still has a weak magnetic delta in the leading spots section. Minor M class flares are possible. Region 9779 was mostly quiet and stable, as was region 9781. Region 9782 was mostly quiet and remains capable of producing M class flares. Region 9783 was quiet and stable. New region 9784 emerged near the southeast limb. New region 9785 was split off from region 9782. Flares and CMEs A total of 8 C and 2 M class events were recorded on January 13. Region 9773 produced an M1.4/1N flare at 03:10, a C3.7 flare at 07:52 and a C7.4 flare at 15:33 UTC. Region 9778 generated a C8 flare at 04:01 and a C3.6 flare at 23:41 UTC. Region 9779 was the source of a C3.5 flare at 05:38 UTC. Region 9775 produced a C7.8 flare at 13:15, a C8 flare at 13:38, a C5.4 flare at 17:10 and an M2.2 flare at 19:46 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 15-17. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9772 2002.01.03 1 S17W54 0030 HSX 9773 2002.01.04 15 N16W57 0530 FKI beta-gamma-delta 9775 2002.01.07 22 S05W43 0180 EAO beta-gamma-delta 9776 2002.01.07 3 N11W26 0020 CSO 9777 2002.01.08 S06W01 plage 9778 2002.01.08 18 S16E09 0140 EAI beta-gamma-delta 9779 2002.01.08 1 N30E02 0130 HSX 9781 2002.01.11 1 S05E39 0060 HSX 9782 2002.01.11 10 N08E48 0280 DAO 9783 2002.01.12 2 S11E65 0160 HAX 9784 2002.01.13 1 S29E58 0010 HAX 9785 2002.01.13 6 N12E53 0110 CAO Total number of sunspots: 80 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8, +1.1) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (111.2 predicted, +1.4) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (111.7 predicted, +0.5) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (110.7 predicted, -1.0) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (108.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (106.3 predicted, -1.7) 2001.12 235.1 131.8 (103.0 predicted, -3.3) 2002.01 219.6 (1) 79.1 (2) (99.4 predicted, -3.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]