Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 13, 2002 at 05:00 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update January 12, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on January 12. Solar wind speed ranged between 491 and 583 km/sec under the weakening influence of a high speed coronal stream. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 233.3, the planetary A index was 15 (3-hour K indices: 3344 3332, Boulder K indices: 3334 3421). Region 9772 was quiet and stable. Region 9773 remains fairly complex with a strong magnetic delta structure in its central section. M class flaring is likely. Region 9775 was mostly unchanged and could produce further minor M class flares. Region 9776 decayed slowly and quietly, the region could soon become spotless. Region 9778 was mostly unchanged and still has magnetic delta in the leading spots section. Minor M class flares are possible. Region 9779 was mostly quiet and stable. Region 9780 rotated out of view at the southwest limb. Region 9781 was quiet and stable. Region 9782 was mostly quiet and remains capable of producing M class flares. New region 9783 rotated into view at the southeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 7 C and 4 M class events were recorded on January 12. Region 9773 produced a C4.7 flare at 01:23, a C3.1 flare at 08:40 and a C3.4/1F flare at 08:58 UTC. Region 9775 generated an M1.0 flare at 03:22, a C4.1 flare at 07:42, an M1.7/1N flare at 15:19 and an M1.3 flare at 19:29 UTC. An optically unaccounted M3.4 flare was recorded at 18:43 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 14-16. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9772 2002.01.03 2 S16W41 0060 HSX 9773 2002.01.04 16 N15W46 0500 FKI beta-gamma-delta 9775 2002.01.07 19 S05W16 0140 EAO beta-gamma 9776 2002.01.07 5 N11W13 0020 CSO 9777 2002.01.08 S06E12 plage 9778 2002.01.08 20 S16E21 0140 EAI beta-gamma-delta 9779 2002.01.08 3 N29E13 0120 CSO 9780 2002.01.09 1 S10W93 0030 HSX 9781 2002.01.11 1 S05E52 0080 HSX 9782 2002.01.11 6 N09E62 0320 DAO 9783 2002.01.12 1 S10E76 0090 HAX Total number of sunspots: 74 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8, +1.1) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (111.2 predicted, +1.4) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (111.7 predicted, +0.5) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (110.7 predicted, -1.0) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (108.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (106.3 predicted, -1.7) 2001.12 235.1 131.8 (103.0 predicted, -3.3) 2002.01 217.8 (1) 73.0 (2) (99.4 predicted, -3.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]