Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 11, 2002 at 04:30 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update October 16, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on January 10. Solar wind speed ranged between 336 and 670 km/sec. A high speed coronal stream began influencing the magnetosphere from approximately 06h UTC. There was a quick increase in solar wind speed around 15:45 UTC and this may have been a solar wind shock, however, the evidence for this is not conclusive. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 224.6, the planetary A index was 17 (3-hour K indices: 2123 4543, Boulder K indices: 1123 4433). Region 9767 was quiet and stable and will rotate out of view on January 12. Region 9772 was quiet and stable. Region 9773 developed slowly with three main penumbral sections becoming evident, the central section has a magnetic delta structure. Major flares are possible. Region 9775 was mostly quiet and stable. Region 9776 was quiet and stable. Region 9778 developed further and could produce minor M class flares. Region 9779 was quiet and stable. Region 9780 developed slowly and was quiet. An above 10 MeV proton event began slowly on January 10 and is currently just below the 100 pfu level. Flares and CMEs A total of 5 C class events were recorded on January 10. Region 9773 produced a C4.3 flare at 07:59, a C7.0 flare at 10:18, a C2.6 flare at 14:20, a C3.2 flare at 15:18 and a C3.6 flare at 16:08 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to minor storm on January 11 under the influence of a coronal stream, quiet to active is expected in January 12. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9766 2001.12.30 N07W83 9767 2001.12.30 4 S17W73 0120 CAO 9771 2002.01.02 S21W88 plage 9772 2002.01.03 1 S16W14 0040 HSX 9773 2002.01.04 44 N14W17 0510 EAC beta-gamma-delta 9774 2002.01.07 N12W76 plage 9775 2002.01.07 17 S05W03 0080 DSO 9776 2002.01.07 4 N10E19 0040 CSO 9777 2002.01.08 S06E38 plage 9778 2002.01.08 21 S17E45 0220 EAI beta-gamma 9779 2002.01.08 2 N28E40 0100 CAO 9780 2002.01.09 6 S11W62 0050 DSO Total number of sunspots: 99 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8, +1.1) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (111.2 predicted, +1.4) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (111.7 predicted, +0.5) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (110.7 predicted, -1.0) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (108.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (106.3 predicted, -1.7) 2001.12 235.1 131.8 (103.0 predicted, -3.3) 2002.01 215.2 (1) 61.1 (2) (99.4 predicted, -3.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]