Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 10, 2002 at 03:15 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update October 16, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet on January 9. Solar wind speed ranged between 322 and 408 km/sec. Solar flare activity was high. Solar flux was 228.5, the planetary A index was 3 (3-hour K indices: 1000 1220, Boulder K indices: 0010 2330). Region 9765 was quiet and stable and is rotating out of view. Region 9767 decayed further and has only a few spots left. Occasional C class flares are possible. Region 9772 was quiet and stable. Region 9773 developed very quickly and has a strong magnetic delta near the center of the region. Further major flares are likely, and there is a chance of an X class flare. Region 9775 repeated the pattern from the previous day, first developing then decaying. Region 9776 was quiet and stable. Region 9777 decayed into spotless plage. Region 9778 developed at a moderate pace and could soon begin to produce minor M class flares. The region could be developing a magnetic delta structure. Region 9779 was quiet and stable. New region 9780 emerged to the northeast of region 9767. Flares and CMEs A total of 7 C and 2 M class events were recorded on January 9. Region 9773 produced an M1.6/1F flare at 11:30 and a major M9.5/2B flare at 18:01 UTC. The absence of LASCO and SOHO images since just after noon on January 9 makes it difficult to tell if there was a CME associated with the major flare. There were no type II or IV radio sweeps, increasing the possibility that there was no significant CME. The background x-ray flux is at the class C2-C3 level. Coronal holes A large trans-equatorial coronal hole is extending from the northern hemisphere (where it is best defined) and towards the south pole. The coronal hole was in a geoeffective position on January 7-9. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm on January 10-11 under the influence of a coronal stream. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to good. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9765 2001.12.28 1 N07W86 0040 HSX 9766 2001.12.30 N07W70 area highly overestimated, 9767 2001.12.30 6 S18W61 0170 DAO area is slightly larger than region 9772 9771 2002.01.02 S21W75 plage 9772 2002.01.03 1 S16W02 0060 HSX 9773 2002.01.04 27 N14W05 0300 EAI beta-gamma-delta (area still much too small) 9774 2002.01.07 N12W63 plage 9775 2002.01.07 15 S05E11 0080 DSO 9776 2002.01.07 4 N11E32 0070 DSO 9777 2002.01.08 S06E51 plage 9778 2002.01.08 9 S16E58 0170 EAO beta-gamma 9779 2002.01.08 3 N28E53 0170 CAO 9780 2002.01.09 3 S11W49 0030 DSO Total number of sunspots: 69 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8, +1.1) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (111.2 predicted, +1.4) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (111.7 predicted, +0.5) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (110.7 predicted, -1.0) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (108.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (106.3 predicted, -1.7) 2001.12 235.1 131.8 (103.0 predicted, -3.3) 2002.01 214.1 (1) 55.3 (2) (99.4 predicted, -3.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]