Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 9, 2002 at 02:35 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update October 16, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 8. Solar wind speed ranged between 330 and 468 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 199.2, the planetary A index was 7 (3-hour K indices: 2132 2221, Boulder K indices: 2242 2320). Region 9765 was quiet and stable and will rotate over the northwest limb on January 10. Region 9767 decayed a lot losing half of its areal coverage and many spots. Region 9772 was quiet and stable. Region 9773 developed dramatically and quickly became the largest spot group on the visible disk. M class flares are likely. Region 9775 developed early in the day, then began to decay. Region 9776 developed slowly and quietly. New regions 9777 and 9778 rotated into view at the southeast limb. New region 9779 rotated into view at the northeast limb. This region has both positive and negative magnetic fields within the leading penumbra, but it is not yet obvious if there are spots of both polarities. M class flares could be possible. Flares and CMEs A total of 5 C class events were recorded on January 8. Region 9773 produced a C2.5 flare at 13:01, a C6.7 flare at 22:23 and a C7.5 flare at 22:57 UTC. Region 9767 generated a C7.2/1F flare at 17:25 UTC. A very impressive and fast CME was observed in the evening of January 8 from a location just behind the east limb near the equator, this was related to a long duration C9.6 event which peaked at 20:25 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes A large trans-equatorial coronal hole is extending from the northern hemisphere (where it is best defined) and towards the south pole. The coronal hole was in a geoeffective position on January 7-9. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 9 and quiet to minor storm on January 10-11 when a coronal stream will dominate the solar wind. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9763 2001.12.27 N05W86 plage 9765 2001.12.28 1 N06W71 0070 HSX 9766 2001.12.30 N07W57 9767 2001.12.30 16 S21W43 0160 EAO 9771 2002.01.02 S21W62 plage 9772 2002.01.03 1 S16E11 0060 HSX 9773 2002.01.04 19 N13E07 0090 DAC beta-gamma (area way too small) 9774 2002.01.07 N12W50 plage 9775 2002.01.07 10 S05E24 0040 CSO 9776 2002.01.07 3 N11E46 0040 CSO 9777 2002.01.08 1 S06E64 0010 AXX 9778 2002.01.08 1 S15E67 0060 HSX 9779 2002.01.08 1 N28E65 0150 HSX Total number of sunspots: 53 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8, +1.1) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (111.2 predicted, +1.4) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (111.7 predicted, +0.5) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (110.7 predicted, -1.0) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (108.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (106.3 predicted, -1.7) 2001.12 235.1 131.8 (103.0 predicted, -3.3) 2002.01 212.3 (1) 50.2 (2) (99.4 predicted, -3.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]