Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 8, 2002 at 03:40 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update October 16, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 7. Solar wind speed ranged between 317 and 412 km/sec. A weak disturbance was in progress most of the day. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 188.6, the planetary A index was 7 (3-hour K indices: 1103 2332, Boulder K indices: 0213 1333). Regions 9761 and 9763 decayed slowly and were spotless by the end of the day. Region 9765 was quiet and stable. Region 9767 decayed significantly and lost quite a few spots, particularly late in the day. Occasional M class flares are possible. Region 9771 decayed and was spotless by the end of the day. Region 9772 was quiet and stable. Region 9773 decayed slowly and quietly. New region 9774 emerged in the northwest quadrant and appeared to be spotless early on Jan.8. New region 9775 emerged in the southeast quadrant and is developing at a moderate pace. New region 9776 emerged near the northeast limb. Early on Jan. 8 a spotted region has rotated into view at the southeast limb. Another spotted and fairly active region is at the northeast limb, this region could be associated with a complex and very fast CME observed on January 4. Flares and CMEs A total of 7 C class events were recorded on January 7. Region 9773 produced a C3.5/1F flare at 06:47, a C2.7 flare at 15:34, a C2.9 flare at 21:01 and a C2.8 flare at 22:55 UTC. Region 9767 generated a C3.8 flare at 14:22 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B9 level. Coronal holes A large trans-equatorial coronal hole is extending from the northern hemisphere (where it is best defined) and towards the south pole. The coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position on January 7-9. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 8-9 and quiet to minor storm on January 10-11 when a coronal stream will dominate the solar wind. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9756 2001.12.26 S28W83 plage 9761 2001.12.26 1 N09W83 0010 AXX 9763 2001.12.27 1 N05W73 0010 AXX 9765 2001.12.28 2 N06W54 0070 CSO 9766 2001.12.30 N07W44 9767 2001.12.30 28 S22W30 0250 FAI beta-gamma 9770 2002.01.02 N07W88 plage 9771 2002.01.02 6 S21W49 0010 BXO 9772 2002.01.03 1 S17E24 0060 HSX 9773 2002.01.04 13 N12E22 0120 DAO 9774 2002.01.07 2 N12W37 0010 BXO 9775 2002.01.07 3 S06E37 0020 CRO 9776 2002.01.07 1 N10E59 0010 AXX Total number of sunspots: 52 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8, +1.1) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (111.2 predicted, +1.4) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (111.7 predicted, +0.5) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (110.7 predicted, -1.0) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (108.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (106.3 predicted, -1.7) 2001.12 235.1 131.8 (103.0 predicted, -3.3) 2002.01 214.2 (1) 45.5 (2) (99.4 predicted, -3.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]