Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 4, 2002 at 05:00 UTC. The next update could be delayed until afternoon on January 6 as I probably will be attending a DX camp. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update October 16, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet on January 3. Solar wind speed ranged between 319 and 393 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 220.3, the planetary A index was 3 (3-hour K indices: 1111 1121, Boulder K indices: 1011 1100). Region 9754 was mostly quiet as it rotated onto the southwest limb. Region 9755 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9761 was quiet and stable, as was region 9763. Region 9764 decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. Region 9765 was quiet and stable. Region 9766 decayed and was spotless by the end of the day. Region 9767 was mostly unchanged with the most interesting area of the region being the magnetically complex southern part. M class flares are possible. Region 9768 was quiet and stable. Regions 9769 and 9770 developed slowly and mostly quietly. Region 9771 developed slowly and was mostly quiet. New region 9772 rotated into view at the southeast limb. A spotted region is rotating into view at the northeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 11 C class events were recorded on January 3. An area to the northwest of region 9767 was the origin of a C5.9/1F flare at 02:20 UTC. Although a weak type II radio sweep was recorded no CME was observed in LASCO images. Region 9754 produced a C4.0 flare at 04:02 and a C2.8 flare at 07:17 UTC. Region 9764 generated a C2.1 flare at 08:46 UTC. Region 9770 managed a C2.7 flare at 11:47 and a C2.3 flare at 14:32 UTC. Region 9767 produced a C4.4 flare at 17:13 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on January 4-6. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair and improving. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location region numbered sunspots at Area Classification Comment midnight 9754 2001.12.23 10 S05W81 0160 EAO 9755 2001.12.25 4 S04W55 0070 CSO 9756 2001.12.26 S28W31 plage 9758 2001.12.26 N13W84 plage 9759 2001.12.26 N17W76 plage 9760 2001.12.26 N07W70 plage 9761 2001.12.26 3 N11W31 0020 HSX 9762 2001.12.27 N02W85 plage 9763 2001.12.27 1 N07W20 0050 HSX 9764 2001.12.28 7 N14W64 0170 DAO 9765 2001.12.28 4 N06W03 0070 CSO 9766 2001.12.30 2 N07E08 0010 BXO now spotless 9767 2001.12.30 39 S23E23 0310 EAI beta-gamma 9768 2002.01.01 5 S07W43 0040 CSO 9769 2002.01.02 5 S19W45 0060 DSO 9770 2002.01.02 9 N09W41 0050 CSO 9771 2002.01.02 9 S20E05 0040 CRO 9772 2002.01.03 1 S18E83 0120 HAX Total number of sunspots: 99 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8, +1.1) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (111.2 predicted, +1.4) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (111.7 predicted, +0.5) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (110.7 predicted, -1.0) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (108.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (106.3 predicted, -1.7) 2001.12 235.1 131.8 (103.0 predicted, -3.3) 2002.01 227.9 (1) 22.3 (2) (99.4 predicted, -3.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]