Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 3, 2002 at 03:20 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update October 16, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 2. Solar wind speed ranged between 354 and 460 km/sec. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 231.1, the planetary A index was 7 (3-hour K indices: 1111 3322, Boulder K indices: 2212 2322). Region 9751 rotated off the northwest limb. Region 9754 developed slowly and can produce further minor M class flares before rotating over the southwest limb on January 4. Region 9755 was quiet and stable. Region 9761 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9763 was quiet and stable. Region 9764 was mostly quiet and stable. Minor M class flares are possible. Region 9765 was quiet and stable. Region 9766 reemerged and is developing slowly. Region 9767 lost some of its areal coverage. A large S shaped filament overlying most of the region was quite active , particularly during the first half of the day. This filament could erupt anytime and cause a major flare. Region 9768 developed slowly and quietly. New region 9669 emerged in the southwest quadrant. New region 9770 emerged in the northwest quadrant. New region 9771 emerged in the southeast quadrant. An active region is approaching the northeast limb and should soon rotate into view. Flares and CMEs A total of 7 C and 2 M class event were recorded on January 2. Region 9751 produced a C5.2 flare at 03:19 UTC. Region 9754 generated a C4.6 flare at 03:41, a C7.2 flare at 08:01, a C6.7 flare at 09:13 and an M2.4/1N impulsive flare at 12:52 UTC. Region 9764 was the source of a C3.1 flare at 05:36, while region 9767 was the apparent source of an M1.1 flare at 21:48 UTC. A C6 event at about 02:20 UTC on January 3 had its origin in a new region one day's rotation away from the central meridian in the southeast quadrant. This event may have been accompanied by a geoeffective CME. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1-C2 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 3-5. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9751 2001.12.21 4 N04W89 0080 DAO 9753 2001.12.22 S17W86 plage 9754 2001.12.23 17 S07W68 0170 EAI beta-gamma 9755 2001.12.25 6 S04W42 0090 DSO 9756 2001.12.26 S28W18 plage 9758 2001.12.26 N13W71 plage 9759 2001.12.26 N17W63 plage 9760 2001.12.26 N07W57 plage 9761 2001.12.26 2 N11W18 0030 CSO 9762 2001.12.27 N02W72 plage 9763 2001.12.27 1 N06W06 0040 HSX 9764 2001.12.28 14 N14W50 0200 DAO 9765 2001.12.28 5 N06E11 0080 DSO 9766 2001.12.30 1 N04E21 0000 AXX 9767 2001.12.30 37 S23E36 0410 EAI beta-gamma 9768 2002.01.01 7 S06W28 0030 DSO 9769 2002.01.02 4 S19W33 0030 DSO 9770 2002.01.02 8 N08W29 0030 CSO 9771 2002.01.02 5 S20E17 0010 BXO Total number of sunspots: 111 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8, +1.1) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (111.2 predicted, +1.4) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (111.7 predicted, +0.5) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (110.7 predicted, -1.0) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (108.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (106.3 predicted, -1.7) 2001.12 235.1 131.8 (103.0 predicted, -3.3) 2002.01 231.7 (1) 14.9 (2) (99.4 predicted, -3.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]