Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 2, 2002 at 04:15 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update October 16, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 1. Solar wind speed ranged between 390 and 502 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 232.2, the planetary A index was 7 (3-hour K indices: 2222 2232, Boulder K indices: 2222 2332). Region 9751 decayed quickly and is rotating out of view. Region 9753 decayed further and is rotating over the southwest limb. Region 9754 decayed further but could still produce an isolated minor M class flare. Region 9755 was quiet and stable. Region 9756 decayed and was spotless by the end of the day. Region 9761 was quiet and stable. Region 9763 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9764 developed further but remained quiet. Minor M class flares are possible. Region 9765 was quiet and stable. Region 9766 was spotless most of the day. Region 9767 has a magnetic delta structure in the southern part of the spot group. The region was mostly quiet but could produce M class flares. New region 9768 emerged in the southwest quadrant and has mixed polarities. The region is likely to develop further. Flares and CMEs Only 1 optically uncorrelated C class event was recorded on January 1, a C4.5 flare at 09:10 UTC. A full halo CME was observed in LASCO C3 images starting at 20:18 UTC. The source of this CME was probably old region 9741 several days behind the northwest limb. An increase in the above 10 MeV proton event has been observed early on January 2, and with no other likely sources, it would appear that the event which produced the CME was a proton event as well. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1-C2 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 2-4. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9749 2001.12.20 S08W87 plage 9751 2001.12.21 12 N03W77 0150 EAI area and spot count too high 9753 2001.12.22 7 S17W73 0070 CSO area and spot count too high 9754 2001.12.23 19 S07W55 0100 DAI beta-gamma 9755 2001.12.25 12 S08W29 0140 DSO 9756 2001.12.26 1 S28W05 0020 HSX now spotless 9757 2001.12.26 S10W77 plage 9758 2001.12.26 N13W58 plage 9759 2001.12.26 N17W50 plage 9760 2001.12.26 N07W44 plage 9761 2001.12.26 1 N10W05 0050 HSX 9762 2001.12.27 N02W59 plage 9763 2001.12.27 1 N06E07 0040 HSX 9764 2001.12.28 14 N14W37 0170 DAO 9765 2001.12.28 7 N06E24 0080 DSO 9766 2001.12.30 1 N04E35 0020 HRX now spotless 9767 2001.12.30 22 S23E49 0510 EHI beta-gamma-delta 9768 2002.01.01 5 S06W15 0010 BXO beta-gamma Total number of sunspots: 102 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8, +1.1) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (111.2 predicted, +1.4) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (111.7 predicted, +0.5) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (110.7 predicted, -1.0) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (108.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (106.3 predicted, -1.7) 2001.12 235.1 131.8 (103.0 predicted, -3.3) 2002.01 232.2 (1) 7.2 (2) (99.4 predicted, -3.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]