:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2002 Jan 08 2212 UT
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
31 December 2001 - 06 January 2002

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Low activity occurred
during the first two days of the period due to isolated C-class
subflares. Activity increased to moderate levels on 02 January due
to an impulsive low-level M-class flare from Region 9754 (S08, L =
121, class/area Eai/270 on 25 December), which departed the visible
disk on 04 January (please refer to the Energetic Events or Optical
Flares lists for flare specifics). Activity decreased to low levels
on 03 January with occasional C-class subflares from Regions 9754
and 9767 (S23, L = 016, class/area Eki/510 on 31 December). Region
9767 exhibited moderate size and magnetic complexity, but began to
show signs of decay late in the period (Region 9767 was the return
of old Region 9727, which had a history of major flare production).
Activity returned to moderate levels during 04 – 05 January due to a
couple low-level M-class flares from Region 9773 (N13, L = 324,
class/area Dao/140 on 06 January), which rotated into view on 04
January. Region 9773 was also moderate in size and magnetic
complexity, but began to gradually decay late in the period. Another
event of interest was a long-duration C3 X-ray flare at 04/0952 UTC
associated with an eruptive prominence on the northeast limb, a Type
II radio sweep, and a coronal mass ejection. Activity decreased to
low levels on the final day of the period.

Solar wind data were available from the NASA Advanced Composition
Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for most of the period. A coronal mass
ejection (CME) passage was in progress at the start of the period
with wind velocities as high as 670 km/sec early on 31 December.
However, CME effects subsided by late on 31 December as velocities
gradually decreased. There were no significant disturbances observed
during the rest of the period.

A greater than 10 MeV proton event was in progress at the start of
the period. It began at 
30/0240 UTC, reached a peak of 108 PFU at
31/1620 UTC, and ended at 04/2355 UTC following a very gradual
decay.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels during the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels on 31
December with intermittent unsettled to active periods due to
subsiding CME effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions occurred during
the rest of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 January - 04 February 2002

Solar activity is expected to range from low to moderate levels.
Isolated low-level M-class flares are likely. The return of old
Region 9742 (N10, L = 214) on 11 January may bring an increased
chance for isolated major flare activity.

There will be a chance for a proton flare during the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels during most of the
period. However, high flux levels will be possible during 12 – 14
January.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
during most of the period. However, active conditions are expected
during 10 - 13 and 20 January due to coronal hole effects.


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