:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2001 Dec 11 2212 UT
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
03 - 09 December 2001

Solar activity alternated between low and moderate levels. Isolated
low-level M-class flares occurred during the period (please refer to
the Energetic Events or Optical Flares lists for flare times).
Sunspot groups of note during the period included Regions 9715,
9718, 9727, and 9733. Region 9715 (N05, L = 137, class/area Ekc/990
on 30 November), which spawned a major flare on 29 November,
produced isolated C-class subflares and gradually decayed before it
rotated out of view on 06 December. Region 9718 (S07, L = 085,
class/area Eki/720 on 06 December), a large, moderately complex
sunspot group, was in a gradual growth phase through 05 December as
it produced isolated C- and M-class flares. It began to slowly decay
on 06 December. Region 9727 (S21, L = 020, class/area Dkc/430 on 07
December) produced isolated C-class and a single M-class flare
during the period. It increased in size and magnetic complexity as
the period progressed with delta magnetic configurations observed
within the northern and eastern portions of the region. Region 9733
(N14, L = 311, class/area Eai/290 on 09 December) produced an
M-class flare as it rotated into view on 08 December. It was
moderate-sized with a slight degree of magnetic complexity as the
period ended. Note: activity increased to high levels on the day of
this report due to major  flare activity in Region 9733. Details
will be provided in next week’s issue.

Solar wind data were available from the NASA Advanced Composition
Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for most of the period. Solar wind
velocities and proton temperatures were elevated during 03 – 07
December suggesting a weak high-speed stream associated with a
negative-polarity coronal hole. Solar wind velocities occasionally
exceeded 500 km/sec during this time. There were no significant
disturbances during the remainder of the period.

There were no proton events detected at geo-synchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit was at
normal levels through 05 December, then increased to normal to
moderate levels for the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
12 December 2001 - 07 January 2002

Solar activity is expected to range from low to high levels with
isolated low-level M-class flares possible throughout the period.
Isolated major flare activity will also be possible during the
period. Region 9727 may produce a major flare before it departs the
visible disk on 15 December. Region 9733 may produce a major flare
before it departs on 21 December. Active longitudes due to return to
the visible disk during the latter half of the forecast period will
also provide a chance for isolated major flare activity.

There will be a chance for a proton event during the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels during the majority of
the period.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
during most of the period.


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