Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update December 7, 2001 at 04:20 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update December 2, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update December 2, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update December 2, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update October 16, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on December 6. Solar wind speed ranged between 402 and 507 km/sec. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 246.7, the planetary A index was 8 (3-hour K indices: 2113 2333, Boulder K indices: 2123 3233). Region 9715 rotated quietly off the visible disk. Region 9716 decayed quickly and was quiet, the region will rotate over the southwest limb on Dec.8. Region 9717 was quiet and stable. Region 9718 decayed slowly but could still produce occasional M class flares. Region 9720 decayed and was mostly quiet. Region 9721 was quiet and stable, as were regions 9723 and 9724. Region 9726 is developing and could soon produce flares. Region 9727 developed early in the day and seems to have decayed slowly since noon. M class flares are possible. Region 9728 developed slowly and quietly. Region 9729 was quiet and stable. Region 9730 decayed and was spotless by the end of the day. New region 9731 emerged in the northeast quadrant. Oddly, a spotted region at the northeast limb was not numbered Flares and CMEs A total of 3 C and 1 M class events were recorded on December 6. Region 9727 produced an M1.0/2F flare at 08:26 and a C3.5 flare at 20:58 UTC. Region 9720 generated a C7.6/1F flare at 19:07 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on December 7-9. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9715 2001.11.23 2 N03W91 0160 HSX 9716 2001.11.25 2 S05W72 0010 AXX 9717 2001.11.27 4 N05W44 0130 CSO 9718 2001.11.27 23 S07W38 0720 EKI beta-gamma 9720 2001.11.28 9 S23W29 0040 DSO 9721 2001.11.28 3 N11W25 0220 HSX 9722 2001.12.01 S15W86 plage 9723 2001.12.01 7 S04W25 0040 DSO 9724 2001.12.01 3 N10E06 0040 DSO 9726 2001.12.02 3 S17E16 0070 CSO beta-gamma 9727 2001.12.03 12 S21E29 0400 DKO beta-gamma-delta 9728 2001.12.04 9 N35W34 0100 DAO 9729 2001.12.05 3 N24W11 0020 DRO 9730 2001.12.05 2 S12E34 0010 CRO now spotless 9731 2001.12.06 4 N24E36 0040 DSO Total number of sunspots: 86 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.8) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 (108.5 predicted, -0.2) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (108.1 predicted, -0.4) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (108.7 predicted, +0.6) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (108.1 predicted, -0.6) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (105.3 predicted, -2.8) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (103.7 predicted, -1.6) 2001.12 236.4 (1) 45.5 (2) (100.3 predicted, -3.4) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]