Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update December 6, 2001 at 04:55 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update December 2, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update December 2, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update December 2, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update October 16, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on December 5. Solar wind speed ranged between 403 and 480 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 237.0, the planetary A index was 8 (3-hour K indices: 3223 2232, Boulder K indices: 3312 2222). Region 9715 decayed slowly and will be rotating off the visible disk today. Minor M class flares are still possible. Region 9716 was mostly unchanged. Region 9717 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9718 developed early in the day, then began to decay. M class flares are possible. Region 9720 developed slowly and was quiet. Region 9721 was quiet and stable, as were regions 9723, 9724 and 9726. Region 9725 rotated off the visible disk. Region 9727 developed two magnetic delta structures, one inside the main penumbra, the other one in a trailing spot section. Major flares are possible. Region 9728 developed slowly and quietly. New region 9729 emerged in the northeast quadrant near the central meridian. New region 9730 emerged in the southeast quadrant and appears to be decaying already. Flares and CMEs A total of 8 C class events were recorded on December 5. Region 9716 produced a C2.5 flare at 04:03, a C2.3 flare at 06:56 and a C2.6/1F flare at 17:30. Region 9715 generated a C2.1 flare at 11:44. Region 9718 was the source of a C1.7 flare at 20:38 UTC, while region 9727 managed a C2.6 flare at 22:11 and a C1.9 flare at 23:25 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on December 6-8. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9715 2001.11.23 11 N04W76 0520 DKO 9716 2001.11.25 10 S06W61 0070 DAO 9717 2001.11.27 4 N05W31 0150 CSO 9718 2001.11.27 34 S07W24 0660 EAI beta-gamma 9720 2001.11.28 11 S22W16 0060 ESO 9721 2001.11.28 1 N11W11 0210 HSX 9722 2001.12.01 S15W73 plage 9723 2001.12.01 7 S04W11 0040 DAO 9724 2001.12.01 3 N10E19 0060 DSO 9725 2001.12.02 3 S10W86 0050 DSO 9726 2001.12.02 5 S16E29 0060 DSO 9727 2001.12.03 14 S21E42 0320 DKO beta-gamma-delta 9728 2001.12.04 9 N36W20 0060 DSO 9729 2001.12.05 6 N24E04 0040 CAO 9730 2001.12.05 2 S13E49 0020 HRX Total number of sunspots: 120 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.8) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 (108.5 predicted, -0.2) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (108.1 predicted, -0.4) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (108.7 predicted, +0.6) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (108.1 predicted, -0.6) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (105.3 predicted, -2.8) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (103.7 predicted, -1.6) 2001.12 234.3 (1) 38.2 (2) (100.3 predicted, -3.4) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]