Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update December 4, 2001 at 02:25 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update October 16, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on December 3. Solar wind speed ranged between 336 and 505 km/sec. A coronal stream began to influence the field but has so far been weaker than expected. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 235.0, the planetary A index was 7 (3-hour K indices: 1101 2233, Boulder K indices: 0211 2233). Region 9715 decayed significantly and lost its magnetic delta structure. Minor M class flares are possible. Region 9716 developed slowly and was mostly quiet. Region 9717 developed slowly and quietly. Region 9718 developed slowly and is the most significant region on the disk. M class flares are possible. Region 9719 decayed into spotless plage. Region 9720 was quiet and stable. Region 9721 was mostly unchanged and quiet. Region 9722 decayed into spotless plage. Region 9723 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9724 was quiet and stable, as were regions 9725 and 9726. New region 9727 rotated into view at the southeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 6 C class events were recorded on December 3. Region 9715 produced a C7.0/1F flare at 07:12, a C3.4 flare at 10:55 and a C6.1 flare at 18:56 UTC. Region 9718 generated a C3.7 flare at 16:25, a C4.6 flare at 17:09 and a C6.9 flare at 18:35 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1-C2 level. Coronal holes A well defined coronal hole in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on November 30 and December 1. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on December 4 under the influence of a coronal stream and quiet to unsettled on December 5-6. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9715 2001.11.23 27 N04W49 0690 DKI beta-gamma 9716 2001.11.25 19 S05W36 0080 DAO 9717 2001.11.27 11 N04E00 0210 FAI beta-gamma 9718 2001.11.27 30 S07E03 0650 EKI beta-gamma-delta 9719 2001.11.28 N04W64 plage 9720 2001.11.28 11 S18E05 0040 DAO 9721 2001.11.28 6 N13E16 0190 CAO 9722 2001.12.01 S15W47 plage 9723 2001.12.01 2 S04E16 0010 AXX 9724 2001.12.01 3 N10E47 0060 CSO 9725 2001.12.02 6 S10W59 0030 DSO 9726 2001.12.02 2 S16E55 0070 CSO 9727 2001.12.03 3 S22E68 0120 CSO Total number of sunspots: 120 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.8) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 (108.5 predicted, -0.2) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (108.1 predicted, -0.4) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (108.7 predicted, +0.6) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (108.1 predicted, -0.6) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (105.3 predicted, -2.8) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (103.7 predicted, -1.6) 2001.12 233.8 (1) 22.9 (2) (100.3 predicted, -3.4) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]