Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update December 3, 2001 at 04:25 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update October 16, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on December 2. Solar wind speed ranged between 329 and 383 km/sec. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 245.0, the planetary A index was 4 (3-hour K indices: 1001 1321, Boulder K indices: 1110 2322). Region 9712 was quiet and stable. Region 9714 rotated off the visible disk producing M class flares. Region 9715 lost some of its areal coverage, however, in magnetograms, the region appears somewhat more complex than a day ago. Major flares are still possible. Region 9716 developed slowly and quietly. Region 9717 was mostly quiet and stable. Region 9718 did not change much and could generate major flares. Region 9719 was quiet and stable, as was region 9720. Region 9721 developed slowly and quietly. Region 9722 decayed and could soon become spotless. Region 9723 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9724 was quiet and stable. New region 9725 emerged in the southwest quadrant and is already decaying. New region 9726 rotated into view at the southeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 5 C and 2 M class events were recorded on December 2. Region 9714 produced a C3.0 flare at 02:37, an M1.3 long duration event peaking at 15:00 and a long duration M2.0 event peaking at 22:06 UTC. Region 9717 generated a C3.8/1F flare at 03:34 UTC. Region 9718 was the source of a C3.5 flare at 11:45 UTC, while region 9715 managed a C4.6 flare at 18:57 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1-C2 level. Coronal holes A well defined coronal hole in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on November 30 and December 1. A coronal hole in the northern hemisphere could rotate into a geoeffective position on December 3. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm on December 3 due to the arrival of a coronal stream. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9712 2001.11.21 1 N12W78 0000 AXX 9714 2001.11.22 3 S09W95 0120 DAO beta-gamma 9715 2001.11.23 45 N04W37 0800 DKC beta-gamma-delta 9716 2001.11.25 8 S04W23 0040 DAO 9717 2001.11.27 6 N05E13 0230 EAO 9718 2001.11.27 30 S06E17 0600 EKI beta-gamma-delta 9719 2001.11.28 6 N04W51 0040 DSO 9720 2001.11.28 12 S18E20 0040 CAO 9721 2001.11.28 7 N13E30 0170 CAO 9722 2001.12.01 4 S15W34 0040 DSO 9723 2001.12.01 3 S06E31 0020 CSO 9724 2001.12.01 1 N09E59 0050 HSX 9725 2001.12.02 3 S11W45 0030 DSO 9726 2001.12.02 2 S15E69 0070 DSO Total number of sunspots: 131 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.8) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 (108.5 predicted, -0.2) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (108.1 predicted, -0.4) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (108.7 predicted, +0.6) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (108.1 predicted, -0.6) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (105.3 predicted, -2.8) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (103.7 predicted, -1.6) 2001.12 233.2 (1) 15.5 (2) (100.3 predicted, -3.4) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]