:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2001 Nov 21 2212 UT
HIGHLIGHTS OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
12 - 18 NOVEMBER 2001

SOLAR ACTIVITY RANGED FROM LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS.  ACTIVITY WAS AT
MODERATE LEVELS ON 12 - 14, AND 17 NOVEMBER DUE TO ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL M-CLASS FLARES. CONDITIONS WERE AT LOW LEVELS DURING THE OTHER
DAYS OF THE PERIOD.  REGION 9690 (S18, L=027, CLASS/AREA, FKI/1240
ON 12 NOVEMBER) WAS THE MOST ACTIVE REGION DURING MOST OF THIS
PERIOD PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES AND NUMEROUS C-CLASS FLARES
(FOR FLARE DETAILS,  PLEASE REFER TO THE ENERGETIC EVENTS AND
OPTICAL FLARES LISTS).  REGION 9690 SHOWED STEADY SIGNS OF DECAY
DURING THE PERIOD AND EXITED THE VISIBLE DISK ON 17 NOVEMBER. REGION
9704 (S18, L=269, CLASS/AREA, DKI/570 ON 18 NOVEMBER) PRODUCED THE
MOST INTERESTING EVENT OF THE PERIOD, AN M2/1N FLARE ON 17 NOVEMBER
AT 0525 UTC, WITH ACCOMPANYING TYPE II AND IV RADIO SWEEPS, AND AN
EARTH-DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME). BY 18 NOVEMBER, THIS
REGION DEVELOPED INTO A MODERATELY SIZED SUNSPOT REGION WITH A
BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. IT CONTINUED TO PRODUCE
CONTINUOUS C-CLASS SUBFLARES.

SOLAR WIND DATA WERE AVAILABLE FROM THE NASA ADVANCED COMPOSITION
EXPLORER (ACE) SPACECRAFT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE WERE NO
SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES DURING THE PERIOD.

THERE WERE NO PROTON EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 10
MEV PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN ON 04 NOVEMBER ENDED ON 10 NOVEMBER AT
0725 UTC. THIS GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT REACHED A MAXIMUM
FLUX OF 31,700 PFU ON 06/0215 UTC AND ENDED ON 10/0715 UTC.  THE
GREATER THAN 10 MEV EVENT WAS THE LARGEST EVENT RECORDED IN SOLAR
CYCLE 23.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT
NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
DURING THE PERIOD.  A SMALL SUDDEN IMPULSE (SI) OF 6 NT WAS OBSERVED
ON THE USGS BOULDER MAGNETOMETER ON 15/1509 UTC. ISOLATED ACTIVE
CONDITIONS OCCURRED DURING THE REMAINDER OF 15 NOVEMBER. A SINGLE,
ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIOD WAS OBSERVED ON 17 NOVEMBER.

FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
21 NOVEMBER - 17 DECEMBER 2001

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE IS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGION 9704 HAS THE POTENTIAL
FOR MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITY UNTIL IT ROTATES BEYOND THE WEST LIMB ABOUT
25-26 NOVEMBER. SOHO/SWAN FAR SIDE SOLAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
REGION 9684 (N06, L=136, CLASS/AREA EKC/550 ON 04 NOVEMBER) MAY BE
RETAINING SOME OF ITS COMPLEXITY AND IS DUE TO RETURN ON ABOUT 21
NOVEMBER.

PROTON LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE  NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
BARRING A MAJOR PROTON PRODUCING FLARE.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING MOST OF THE
PERIOD.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. 
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 19 -20 NOVEMBER DUE TO A CME SHOCK
PASSAGE. THIS EVENT IS BELIEVED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE M2/1N/CME
EVENT ON 17 NOVEMBER. PREDOMINATELY QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST TO THE PERIOD, BARRING AN EARTH-DIRECTED
CME.


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