:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts :Issued: 2001 Nov 14 2212 UT HIGHLIGHTS OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 05 - 11 NOVEMBER 2001 SOLAR ACTIVITY RANGED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. ACTIVITY WAS AT HIGH LEVELS ON 07 - 08 NOVEMBER AND AT MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. REGION 9690 (S18, L=027, CLASS/AREA, FKC/1420 ON 10 NOVEMBER) WAS THE MOST ACTIVE REGION THIS PERIOD PRODUCING SIXTEEN M-CLASS FLARES AND NUMEROUS C-CLASS FLARES (FOR FLARE DETAILS, PLEASE REFER TO THE ENERGETIC EVENTS AND OPTICAL FLARES LISTS). REGION 9690 APPEARED ON THE EAST LIMB ON 05 NOVEMBER AND CONTINUED TO GROW IN SIZE AND COMPLEXITY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. BY 08 NOVEMBER THIS REGION DEVELOPED A BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. REGION 9684 (N06, L=136, CLASS/AREA, EKC/550 ON 04 NOVEMBER) BEGAN THE PERIOD AS A MODERATELY SIZED, MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX, BETA-GAMMA-DELTA REGION AND ENTERED A GRADUAL DECAY PHASE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS REGION CONTINUED TO DECAY UNTIL IT ROTATED BEYOND THE WEST LIMB ON 08 NOVEMBER. REGION 9687 (S19, L=75, CLASS/AREA FAC/390 ON 04 NOVEMBER) CONTINUED TO GROW EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPED A MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY OF BETA-GAMMA-DELTA ON 06 NOVEMBER. REGION 9687 PRODUCED AN M9/1N FLARE AT 08/0704 UTC WITH AN ASSOCIATED TENFLARE OF 460 SFU AND TYPE II RADIO BURST (VELOCITY 818 KM/SEC). AFTER THE M9 EVENT, REGION 9687 ENTERED A GRADUAL DECAY PHASE AND AT THE CLOSE OF THE SUMMARY PERIOD MAINTAINS A SIMPLE BETA CONFIGURATION WITH 6 SPOTS. REGION 9692 (N07, L=080, CLASS/AREA EKI/740 ON 10 NOVEMBER) DEVELOPED NEAR CENTER DISC ON 07 NOVEMBER AND GREW TO A MODERATELY SIZED, MAGNETICALLY BETA-GAMMA REGION. HOWEVER, THIS REGION HAS SHOWN LITTLE ACTIVITY AT THE CLOSE OF THE PERIOD AND IS DUE TO ROTATE BEYOND THE WEST LIMB ON 14 NOVEMBER. SOLAR WIND DATA WERE AVAILABLE FROM THE NASA ADVANCED COMPOSITION EXPLORER (ACE) SPACECRAFT IN THE LATER HALF OF THE SUMMARY PERIOD. A VERY STRONG SHOCK PASSED ACE AT 06/0125 UTC ASSOCIATED WITH THE X1/3B FLARE AND EARTH-DIRECTED CME ON 04/1620 UTC. AS THE SHOCK REACHED ACE A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWARD BZ DEFLECTION OF -68 NT WAS MEASURED. BZ REMAINED SOUTH FOR ABOUT 2 HOURS THEN TURNED NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 10 HOURS. THE ACE/SWEPAM INSTRUMENT WAS UNRELIABLE FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD UNTIL 07 NOVEMBER DUE TO THE EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENT MENTIONED BELOW. AS THE SUMMARY PERIOD BEGAN A GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT AND A GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTON FLUX EVENT AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE IN EFFECT. THE GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTON EVENT REACHED A MAXIMUM FLUX OF 253 PFU ON 06/0220 UTC AND ENDED ON 06/2315 UTC. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT REACHED A MAXIMUM FLUX OF 31,700 PFU ON 06/0215 UTC AND ENDED ON 10/0715 UTC. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV EVENT WAS THE LARGEST EVENT RECORDED IN SOLAR CYCLE 23. THESE PROTON EVENTS FROM THE X1/3B FLARE ON 04 NOVEMBER CONTAMINATED SOHO/LASCO IMAGERY AND THE ACE/SWEPAM INSTRUMENT IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD. DATA LATE ON 04 NOVEMBER UNTIL LATE ON 06 NOVEMBER WERE UNRELIABLE DUE TO THE EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENT MENTIONED ABOVE. GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON LEVELS WERE ELEVATED TO MODERATE LEVELS FROM LATE ON 06 NOVEMBER UNTIL LATE ON 10 NOVEMBER WHEN THEY DROPPED BACK BELOW 100 PFU TO NORMAL LEVELS. THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD. AN EARTH DIRECTED CME FROM THE X1/3B FLARE ON 04/1620 UTC IMPACTED THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD EARLY ON 06 NOVEMBER. THE SHOCK ARRIVED AT EARTH ON 06/0150 UTC WITH A 90NT SUDDEN IMPULSE MEASURED AT THE BOULDER MAGNETOMETER. SEVERE STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRED ON 06 NOVEMBER FROM 00-09 UTC AND 15-18 UTC. EARLY ON 07 NOVEMBER THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT MINOR STORM LEVELS THEN QUICKLY DECREASED TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FROM 08-11 NOVEMBER THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 14 NOVEMBER - 10 DECEMBER 2001 SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGION 9690 HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITY UNTIL IT ROTATES BEYOND THE WEST LIMB ABOUT 18 NOVEMBER. REGION 9678 (N07, L=221, AREA/CLASS 680/EKC ON 26 OCTOBER) IS DUE TO RETURN ABOUT 16 NOVEMBER. SOHO/SWAN FAR SIDE SOLAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT REGION 9684 (N06, L=136, CLASS/AREA EKC/550 ON 04 NOVEMBER) MAYBE RETAINING SOME OF ITS COMPLEXITY AND IS DUE TO RETURN ON ABOUT 21 NOVEMBER. PROTON LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A NORMAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BARRING A MAJOR PROTON PRODUCING FLARE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO BE AT NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. ON 14-17 NOVEMBER ACTIVE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST TO THE PERIOD BARRING AN EARTH-DIRECTED CME. .