Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 30, 2001 at 05:00 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update October 16, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet on November 29. Solar wind speed ranged between 367 and 445 km/sec. Solar flare activity was high. Solar flux was 216.4, the planetary A index was 3 (3-hour K indices: 2111 1110, Boulder K indices: 1111 1110). Region 9712 decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. . Region 9714 was quiet and stable. Region 9715 developed quickly and has multiple magnetic delta structures. The region is capable of producing major X class proton flares at any time. Region 9716 was quiet and stable, as was region 9717. Region 9718 developed slowly and has at least one magnetic delta structure. The region could produce major flares, possibly even an X class flare. Region 9719 was quiet and stable. Region 9720 could produce occasional minor M class flares. Region 9721 was quiet and stable. Flares and CMEs A total of 18 C and 3 M class events were recorded on November 29. Region 9715 generated a major M5.5/1N flare at 10:36 UTC (see GOES SXI image) and additionally an M1.1 flare at 01:49, a C8.8 flare at 05:23, a C7.6 flare at 14:05, a C2.4 flare at 15:19, a C2.5 flare at 16:27, a C3.5 flare at 17:05, a C5.6/1F flare at 18:06 and a C2.7 flare at 20:51 UTC. No obvious CME was observed in LASCO images. Region 9720 was the source of an M2.1 flare at 10:58 UTC. Region 9712 produced a C6.0 flare at 12:48 UTC. Region 9718 was the source of an impulsive M3 flare early on November 30. November 28: Region 9715 produced a major M6.9 flare (see GOES SXI image) at 16:36 UTC with associated type II and IV radio sweeps. A partial halo CME was observed in LASCO C3 images. The CME could impact Earth's magnetosphere on December 1 and cause unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1-C2 level. Coronal holes A well defined coronal hole in the southern hemisphere will rotate into a geoeffective position on November 30-December 1. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 30. A disturbance could start on December 1 when the CME observed on November 28 arrives. A coronal stream will likely arrive on December 3 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9712 2001.11.21 12 N12W37 0070 DAO 9714 2001.11.22 5 S08W54 0090 DSO 9715 2001.11.23 53 N05E04 0910 EKC beta-gamma-delta 9716 2001.11.25 8 S06E16 0060 CAO 9717 2001.11.27 4 N04E53 0280 EKO 9718 2001.11.27 13 S07E58 0440 EKI beta-gamma-delta 9719 2001.11.28 7 N03W10 0030 CAO 9720 2001.11.28 9 S18E54 0120 DAO 9721 2001.11.28 3 N12E70 0130 CAO Total number of sunspots: 114 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.09 182.1 109.7 116.3 (-2.3) 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.8) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 (108.8 predicted, +1.2) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 (108.0 predicted, -0.8) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (106.7 predicted, -1.3) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (107.3 predicted, +0.6) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (106.7 predicted, -0.6) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (104.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 210.4 (1) 173.4 (2) (102.3 predicted, -1.7) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]