Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 29, 2001 at 03:30 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update October 16, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet on November 28. Solar wind speed ranged between 385 and 466 km/sec. Solar flare activity was high. Solar flux was 198.5, the planetary A index was 3 (3-hour K indices: 1000 0221, Boulder K indices: 0001 2232). Region 9712 was mostly unchanged and quiet. Region 9714 developed slowly and quietly. Region 9715 developed further and has a magnetic delta structure. Another major flare is possible. Region 9716 was quiet and stable, as was region 9717. Region 9718 rotated fully into view. The region may have a magnetic delta structure but with the region near the limb this is difficult to confirm. M class flaring is possible. New region 9719 emerged in the northeast quadrant and appears to be decaying. New region 9720 rotated into view at the southeast limb and may be capable of minor M class flaring. New region 9721 rotated into view at the northeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 12 C and 1 M class events were recorded on November 28. Region 9715 produced a major M6.9 flare (see GOES SXI image) at 16:36 UTC with associated type II and IV radio sweeps. A partial halo CME was observed in LASCO C3 images. The CME could impact Earth's magnetosphere on December 1 and cause unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions. Region 9715 was additionally the source of a C3.1 flare at 01:27, a C3.2 flare at 14:57 and a C1.7 flare at 19:46 UTC. Region 9718 generated a C3.8 flare at 04:17 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes A well defined coronal hole in the southern hemisphere will rotate into a geoeffective position on December 1. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 28-30. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9712 2001.11.21 19 N12W24 0140 DAO beta-gamma 9713 2001.11.22 N08W77 plage 9714 2001.11.22 10 S09W41 0070 DAO 9715 2001.11.23 43 N05E17 0600 EKC beta-gamma-delta 9716 2001.11.25 5 S05E28 0070 CAO 9717 2001.11.27 2 N04E65 0230 CAO 9718 2001.11.27 5 S07E70 0410 DAI beta-gamma-delta? 9719 2001.11.28 1 N03E03 0020 HSX 9720 2001.11.28 4 S18E72 0150 DAO 9721 2001.11.28 1 N10E78 0120 HAX Total number of sunspots: 90 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.09 182.1 109.7 116.3 (-2.3) 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.8) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 (108.8 predicted, +1.2) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 (108.0 predicted, -0.8) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (106.7 predicted, -1.3) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (107.3 predicted, +0.6) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (106.7 predicted, -0.6) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (104.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 210.2 (1) 166.6 (2) (102.3 predicted, -1.7) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]