Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 27, 2001 at 02:35 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update October 16, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 26. Solar wind speed ranged between 481 and 717 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 174.8, the planetary A index was 5 (3-hour K indices: 2131 1211, Boulder K indices: 1031 2111). Region 9704 rotated off the visible disk and was mostly quiet. Region 9710 was quiet and stable, as was region 9712. Region 9714 developed slowly and quietly. Region 9715 developed further and could produce M class flares. Region 9716 was mostly quiet and stable. An active region at the southeast limb will be rotating into view today and could be capable of M class flaring. A smaller region could rotate into view at the northeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 9 C class events were recorded on November 26. Region 9715 produced a C3.3 flare at 01:05 and a C4.3 flare at 13:50 UTC. Region 9716 generated a C1.0 flare at 08:18 UTC. Region 9704 was the source of a C2.6 flare at 21:29 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level. Coronal holes A coronal hole in the southern hemisphere will rotate into a geoeffective position on December 1. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 27-29. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9704 2001.11.14 3 S20W88 0250 DAO 9710 2001.11.18 1 S10W66 0020 HRX 9712 2001.11.21 20 N12E03 0080 DSO 9713 2001.11.22 N08W51 plage 9714 2001.11.22 7 S09W11 0040 CSO 9715 2001.11.23 27 N06E44 0460 EKI beta-gamma 9716 2001.11.25 4 S05E57 0040 CSO Total number of sunspots: 62 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.09 182.1 109.7 116.3 (-2.3) 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.8) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.9) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 (108.8 predicted, +1.2) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 (108.0 predicted, -0.8) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (106.7 predicted, -1.3) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (107.3 predicted, +0.6) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (106.7 predicted, -0.6) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (104.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 211.4 (1) 155.9 (2) (102.3 predicted, -1.7) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]