Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 23, 2001 at 03:35 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update October 16, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 22. Solar wind speed ranged between 356 and 464 km/sec under the influence of a weak coronal stream. Solar flare activity was high. Solar flux was 190.0 (the reading at 18h UTC was used because of flare activity enhancing the values at 20 and 22h UTC), the planetary A index was 8 (3-hour K indices: 1223 2233, Boulder K indices: 0223 3233). Region 9695 rotated quietly off the visible disk. Region 9697 decayed slowly and quietly and will rotate off the northwest limb early on November 24. Region 9698 produced a surprising M class flare, no further flaring is expected before the region rotates off the visible disk on November 24. Region 9704 finally produced major flare activity and could be capable of producing further major flares. There is a strong magnetic delta structure in the central spot group. Region 9710 decayed significantly and is likely to remain quiet. Region 9712 was quiet and stable. New region 9713 emerged in the northeast quadrant and has been developing fairly quickly. C class flares are likely and the region could soon become capable of minor M class flare production. New region 9714 emerged in the southeast quadrant. Flares and CMEs A total of 6 C and 3 M class events were recorded on November 22. Region 9698 produced an M3.8/2B long duration event peaking at 20:36 UTC. An above 10 MeV proton event began later in the evening. The LDE was accompanied by a strong type II radio sweep. A CME is likely to have been produced as well, however, with no LASCO images yet available, this cannot be confirmed. Region 9704 generated a C1.8 flare at 08:39, a C1.9 flare at 12:03, an M1.2/1F long duration event peaking at 17:08, a C5.9 flare at 22:15 and finally a long duration major M9.9/2N event peaking at 23:30 UTC. The major event was accompanied by a weak type II and a moderate type IV radio sweep as well as a further increase in the proton event already in progress. A large geoeffective CME is likely to have been produced and could impact Earth on November 25. Due to the lack of LASCO images it is difficult to estimate how significant the geomagnetic disturbance will become. The above 10 MeV proton event currently in progress is, as I write this, at the 400 pfu level and is increasing rapidly. November 21: A long duration C4.7 event began at 12:07 and peaked at 14:58 UTC. Although region 9704 apparently contributed to this event, the main source of activity was in the northern hemisphere where an extensive long lasting filament eruption across the central meridian was observed in LASCO EIT images. LASCO C2 and C3 images were interesting. At first a wide and faint CME (possibly a full halo one, but very difficult to determine this because of an eruption in region 9704) was observed with a front appearing above the northwest limb and the north pole. Then a second CME was observed beginning at 14:04 UTC in LASCO C2 images. This was a narrower CME and ejected material was observed first below the south pole and the southwest limb and became a partial halo CME. Together the two CMEs give the appearance of a full halo CME. Anyway we are likely to see a CME impact on November 24 and this will likely result in unsettled to active conditions, possibly with minor storming at high latitudes. The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level. Coronal holes A well defined coronal hole in the southern hemisphere rotated across the central meridian on November 22 but appears to have been too far to the south to be geoeffective. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 23 and quiet to minor storm on November 24. Unsettled to major storm is possible on November 25-26. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9695 2001.11.10 1 N12W90 0050 HSX 9696 2001.11.10 S04W87 plage 9697 2001.11.11 1 N12W73 0260 HSX 9698 2001.11.12 1 S25W68 0110 HSX 9704 2001.11.14 24 S18W38 0610 EKI beta-gamma-delta 9705 2001.11.15 N12W57 9706 2001.11.15 N15W39 plage 9708 2001.11.16 N04W78 plage 9709 2001.11.16 N20W41 plage 9710 2001.11.18 15 S11W08 0100 EAO 9711 2001.11.20 S12W51 plage 9712 2001.11.21 7 N12E58 0090 DSO 9713 2001.11.22 10 N08E03 0040 DSO beta-gamma 9714 2001.11.22 4 S11E36 0050 DAO Total number of sunspots: 63 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.09 182.1 109.7 116.3 (-2.3) 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.8) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.9) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 (108.8 predicted, +1.2) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 (108.0 predicted, -0.8) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (106.7 predicted, -1.3) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (107.3 predicted, +0.6) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (106.7 predicted, -0.6) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (104.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 218.2 (1) 139.5 (2) (102.3 predicted, -1.7) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]