Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 22, 2001 at 01:15 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update October 16, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with a single slightly unsettled interval 06-09h UTC on November 21. Solar wind speed ranged between 347 and 408 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 184.2, the planetary A index was 6 (3-hour K indices: 1132 2221, Boulder K indices: 0121 3322). Region 9695 was quiet and stable and will rotate off the visible disk late on November 22. Region 9697 decayed slowly and quietly, as did region 9698. Region 9704 continued to be active and could produce an M class proton flare. The main penumbra is splitting in two parts. Region 9710 developed slowly and quietly. Region 9711 was quiet and stable, no spots were observed early on Nov.22. New region 9712 rotated into view at the northeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 11 C class events were recorded on November 21. Region 9704 produced a C1.6 flare at 01:27, a C2.4 flare at 04:28, a C3.7 flare at 08:33, a C1.4 flare at 09:51, a C1.8 flare at 10:08, a C4.4 flare at 11:10, a C2.8 flare at 17:52 and a C6.3 flare at 18:18 UTC. A long duration C4.7 event began at 12:07 and peaked at 14:58 UTC. Although region 9704 apparently contributed to this event, the main source of activity was in the northern hemisphere where an extensive long lasting filament eruption across the central meridian was observed in LASCO EIT images. LASCO C2 and C3 images were interesting. At first a wide and faint CME (possibly a full halo one, but very difficult to determine this because of an eruption in region 9704) was observed with a front appearing above the northwest limb and the north pole. Then a second CME was observed beginning at 14:04 UTC in LASCO C2 images. This was a narrower CME and ejected material was observed first below the south pole and the southwest limb and became a partial halo CME. Together the two CMEs give the appearance of a full halo CME. Anyway we are likely to see a CME impact on November 24 and this will likely result in unsettled to active conditions, possibly with minor storming at high latitudes. The background x-ray flux is at the class B9 level. Coronal holes A well defined coronal hole in the southern hemisphere will rotate across the central meridian on November 22 but appears to be too far to the south to be geoeffective. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 22-23. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9695 2001.11.10 1 N12W76 0060 HSX 9696 2001.11.10 S04W74 plage 9697 2001.11.11 6 N13W60 0260 CKO 9698 2001.11.12 2 S24W55 0110 CAO 9703 2001.11.14 N23W80 plage 9704 2001.11.14 30 S17W24 0560 DKI beta-gamma-delta 9705 2001.11.15 N12W44 9706 2001.11.15 N15W26 plage 9707 2001.11.16 N14W89 plage 9708 2001.11.16 N04W65 plage 9709 2001.11.16 N20W28 plage 9710 2001.11.18 18 S11E05 0090 DSO 9711 2001.11.20 1 S12W38 0020 HSX spotless? 9712 2001.11.21 4 N13E71 0050 CSO Total number of sunspots: 62 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.09 182.1 109.7 116.3 (-2.3) 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.8) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.9) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 (108.8 predicted, +1.2) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 (108.0 predicted, -0.8) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (106.7 predicted, -1.3) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (107.3 predicted, +0.6) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (106.7 predicted, -0.6) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (104.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 219.6 (1) 134.8 (2) (102.3 predicted, -1.7) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]