Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 20, 2001 at 03:40 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update October 16, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on November 19. Solar wind speed ranged between 360 and 599 km/sec. A solar wind shock was observed at SOHO at approximately 17:34 UTC. Solar wind speed increased abruptly from 450 to 560 km/sec and the geomagnetic field swung moderately southwards. The source of this disturbance is likely the halo CME observed early on November 17. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 191.3, the planetary A index was 16 (3-hour K indices: 3224 3344, Boulder K indices: 3224 4343). Region 9691 rotated over the northwest limb. Region 9694 decayed and is rotating off the visible disk. Region 9695 was quiet and stable. Region 9697 decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. An isolated minor M class flare is possible. Region 9698 was quiet and stable. Region 9704 developed slowly and still has a magnetic delta structure in the northern part of the huge main penumbra. A second delta could be developing at the southern edge of the same penumbra. M class proton flares are possible. Region 9705 was quiet and stable, the region could become spotless today. Region 9708 decayed slowly and could soon become spotless. Region 9710 developed slowly and was quiet. Flares and CMEs A total of 8 C class events were recorded on November 19. Region 9704 produced a C4.5 flare at 07:01, a C3.6 flare at 20:09 and a C1.7 flare at 23:24 UTC. Region 9697 generated a C1.6 flare at 18:55 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on November 20, possibly with isolated minor storm intervals at high latitudes. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9691 2001.11.07 1 N10W95 0030 HAX 9694 2001.11.07 1 N14W80 0030 HSX 9695 2001.11.10 1 N12W49 0080 HSX 9696 2001.11.10 S04W48 plage 9697 2001.11.11 16 N12W31 0330 DKO beta-gamma 9698 2001.11.12 8 S24W28 0120 DAO 9700 2001.11.13 S24W87 plage 9701 2001.11.13 S33W81 plage 9702 2001.11.14 N26W71 plage 9703 2001.11.14 N23W54 plage 9704 2001.11.14 28 S16E02 0610 DKI beta-gamma-delta 9705 2001.11.15 6 N15W17 0010 BXO 9706 2001.11.15 N15E00 plage 9707 2001.11.16 N14W63 plage 9708 2001.11.16 5 N03W39 0020 DSO 9709 2001.11.16 N20W02 plage 9710 2001.11.18 12 S12E32 0050 DAO Total number of sunspots: 78 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.09 182.1 109.7 116.3 (-2.3) 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.8) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.9) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 (108.8 predicted, +1.2) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 (108.0 predicted, -0.8) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (106.7 predicted, -1.3) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (107.3 predicted, +0.6) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (106.7 predicted, -0.6) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (104.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 223.2 (1) 125.0 (2) (102.3 predicted, -1.7) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]