Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 19, 2001 at 05:50 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update October 16, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 18. Solar wind speed ranged between 350 and 434 km/sec under the influence of a coronal stream. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 188.2, the planetary A index was 7 (3-hour K indices: 2222 2322, Boulder K indices: 1221 3322). Region 9690 rotated out of view early on Nov.18. Regions 9691, 9694 and 9695 were quiet and stable, region 9691 is rotating off the visible disk. Region 9697 was mostly unchanged and could produce minor M class flares. Region 9698 decayed quietly. Region 9704 developed slowly and still has a magnetic delta structure. M class proton flares are possible. Region 9705 reemerged briefly with a few spots. Region 9708 developed slowly and quietly. Region 9709 decayed and was spotless by late evening. New region 9710 emerged in the southeast quadrant. Flares and CMEs A total of 3 C class events were recorded on November 18. Region 9704 produced a C1.5 flare at 00:45 and a C7.4 flare at 09:19 UTC. November 17: Region 9704 produced a long duration M2.8/1N event which peaked at 05:25 UTC. Type II and IV radio sweeps were recorded and a full halo CME was produced. The large and bright CME was observed mostly off the east limbs but ejected material was seen even around all of the western hemisphere. The CME will impact Earth but it is uncertain if any part of the main core of the CME will reach us. November 20 is the most likely arrival date and the geomagnetic disturbance will probably be at unsettled to minor storm levels. The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 19 and quiet to minor storm on November 20. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9690 2001.11.05 1 S17W92 0100 HAX 9691 2001.11.07 1 N08W84 0050 HSX 9694 2001.11.07 1 N13W67 0030 HSX 9695 2001.11.10 1 N11W36 0060 HSX 9696 2001.11.10 S04W35 plage 9697 2001.11.11 17 N12W19 0330 DKI beta-gamma 9698 2001.11.12 4 S26W16 0110 DAO 9700 2001.11.13 S24W74 plage 9701 2001.11.13 S33W68 plage 9702 2001.11.14 N26W58 plage 9703 2001.11.14 N23W41 plage 9704 2001.11.14 27 S18E16 0570 DKI beta-gamma-delta 9705 2001.11.15 6 N12W05 0020 BXO now spotless 9706 2001.11.15 N15E13 plage 9707 2001.11.16 N14W50 plage 9708 2001.11.16 6 N03W25 0030 DSO 9709 2001.11.16 3 N20E11 0020 BXO now spotless 9710 2001.11.18 4 S10E46 0050 CAO Total number of sunspots: 71 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.09 182.1 109.7 116.3 (-2.3) 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.8) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.9) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 (108.8 predicted, +1.2) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 (108.0 predicted, -0.8) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (106.7 predicted, -1.3) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (107.3 predicted, +0.6) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (106.7 predicted, -0.6) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (104.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 225.0 (1) 119.4 (2) (102.3 predicted, -1.7) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]