Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 14, 2001 at 04:25 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update October 16, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet on November 13. Solar wind speed ranged between 348 and 390 km/sec. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 217.0 (the reading at 18h UTC was used as the 20h UTC measurement was enhanced because of a long duration event), the planetary A index was 3 (3-hour K indices: 1000 1222, Boulder K indices: 1211 2211). Region 9687 was spotless for the second consecutive day (not so according to SEC/NOAA!). Region 9688 decayed and was spotless by early afternoon. Region 9690 decayed slowly but could still generate major flares. The magnetic delta structure appears to have disintegrated. Region 9691 was quiet and stable. Region 9692 was mostly unchanged and rotated fully off the visible disk by midnight. Region 9694 was quiet and stable, as were regions 9695, 9696 and 9697. Region 9698 decayed quietly and rotated out of view at the southwest limb. Region 9699 was quiet and stable. (Having numbered regions 9698 and 9699 on November 12, SEC/NOAA incredibly managed to reverse the numbering for these two regions on November 13 with region 9698 becoming region 9699 and vice versa. The original numbering is kept here hoping that SEC/NOAA soon will realize their mistake.) New region 9700 emerged in the southern hemisphere near the central meridian, the region already appears to be spotless. New region 9701 emerged just south of region 9700 and seems to be spotless early on November 14. Old region 9672 began rotating into view at the southeast limb late in the day and is likely capable of producing M class flares. Flares and CMEs A total of 6 C and 1 M class events were recorded on November 13. Region 9690 produced an M1.5 flare at 06:26, a C6.9 flare at 09:23, a C3.6 flare at 11:49 and a C7.2 long duration event which peaked at 19:25 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes A coronal hole in the southern hemisphere could rotate into a geoeffective position on November 14-15. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 14-15. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair and could soon improve to good. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9687 2001.11.01 2 S20W85 0070 CAO region spotless last 2 days! 9688 2001.11.03 1 N26W58 0010 AXX now spotless 9690 2001.11.05 64 S18W34 1150 FKC beta-gamma 9691 2001.11.07 1 N08W17 0090 HSX 9692 2001.11.07 1 N09W84 0230 HKX 9693 2001.11.07 N12W80 plage 9694 2001.11.07 2 N14E00 0070 CSO 9695 2001.11.10 4 N11E31 0100 CAO 9696 2001.11.10 13 S06E31 0050 DAO 9697 2001.11.11 3 N11E47 0210 CSO 9698 2001.11.12 3 S09W81 0070 DSO area and classification mix-up with region 9699 9699 2001.11.12 3 S24E49 0070 DSO 9700 2001.11.13 2 S25W08 0000 AXX 9791 2001.11.13 5 S33W03 0020 DSO Total number of sunspots: 104 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.09 182.1 109.7 116.3 (-2.3) 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.8) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.9) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 (108.8 predicted, +1.2) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 (108.0 predicted, -0.8) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (106.7 predicted, -1.3) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (107.3 predicted, +0.6) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (106.7 predicted, -0.6) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (104.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 233.6 (1) 86.8 (2) (102.3 predicted, -1.7) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]