Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 13, 2001 at 02:50 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update October 16, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet on November 12 (with the planetary A index at 2 this was one of the quietest days since the solar minimum). Solar wind speed ranged between 375 and 467 km/sec. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 227.3, the planetary A index was 2 (3-hour K indices: 1000 1210, Boulder K indices: 0001 2200). Region 9687 decayed and was spotless by noon. Region 9688 was quiet and could become spotless today. Region 9690 decayed slowly but could still generate major flares. The region was less active than it has been recently and produced only a few C flares. Region 9691 was quiet and stable. Region 9692 was mostly unchanged and is rotating off the visible disk. Further minor M class flares are possible. Region 9693 decayed and was spotless by early evening. Region 9694 was quiet and stable, as were regions 9695, 9696 and 9697. New region 9698 emerged to the north of region 9687 near the southwest limb. New region 9699 rotated into view at the southeast limb. Old region 9672 is approaching the southeast limb and will rotate into view by tomorrow. The region is capable of at least minor M class flaring. Flares and CMEs A total of 8 C and 1 M class events were recorded on November 12. Region 9690 produced a C5.4 flare at 02:07, a C2.3 flare at 07:36, a C2.4 flare at 20:33 and a C2.0 flare at 21:55 UTC. Region 9692 was the source of a C4.8 flare at 03:01 and an M1.6/1B flare at 07:57 UTC. Old region 9672 behind the southeast limb generated a long duration C7.0 event which peaked at 09:38 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 13-15. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9687 2001.11.01 9 S20W71 0030 BXO region is spotless 9688 2001.11.03 1 N26W45 0010 AXX 9690 2001.11.05 82 S18W22 1180 FKC beta-gamma-delta 9691 2001.11.07 1 N08W04 0100 HSX 9692 2001.11.07 9 N07W78 0530 EKI 9693 2001.11.07 1 N12W67 0000 AXX now spotless 9694 2001.11.07 1 N13E13 0070 HSX 9695 2001.11.10 5 N10E44 0120 CAO 9696 2001.11.10 11 S05E44 0050 DSO 9697 2001.11.11 2 N10E61 0200 HAX 9698 2001.11.12 5 S08W67 0050 CAO 9699 2001.11.12 5 S24E64 0050 CAO Total number of sunspots: 132 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.09 182.1 109.7 116.3 (-2.3) 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.8) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.9) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 (108.8 predicted, +1.2) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 (108.0 predicted, -0.8) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (106.7 predicted, -1.3) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (107.3 predicted, +0.6) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (106.7 predicted, -0.6) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (104.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 235.0 (1) 79.0 (2) (102.3 predicted, -1.7) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]