Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 12, 2001 at 03:40 UTC. Minor update posted at 09:33 UTC [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update October 16, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet on November 11. Solar wind speed ranged between 364 and 503 km/sec. A weak solar wind shock was observed at ACE near 08h UTC. Solar wind speed increased rapidly from 410 to 440 km/sec and later exceeded 500 km/sec. A brief moderate southward excursion of the interplanetary magnetic field was observed. The IMF was otherwise northwards resulting in no geomagnetic disturbance. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 234.0, the planetary A index was 4 (3-hour K indices: 2102 1221, Boulder K indices: 2211 2221). Region 9685 was quiet and stable and rotated off the visible disk. Region 9687 decayed further and has only a few small spots left. The region could become spotless today or tomorrow. Region 9688 was quiet and could become spotless today. Region 9689 decayed and is rotating off the southwest limb. Region 9690 did not change much and still has an interesting magnetic delta structure in the trailing spots section. A major flare is possible. Region 9691 was quiet and stable. Region 9692 decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. Minor M class flares are still possible. Region 9693 was quiet and stable, the region could become spotless today. Region 9694 was quiet and stable, as were regions 9695 and 9696. New region 9697 rotated into view at the northeast limb. Comment added at 09:33 UTC on November 12: A region near the northwest limb was the source of an impulsive M1.6 flare at 07:56 UTC (see GOES SXI image). A long duration event is currently in progress and has so far reached the C7 level. Its source (see image) is in an interesting region approaching the southeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 11 C and 1 M class events were recorded on November 11. Spotless region 9686 was the source of a C5.2 flare at 00:35 UTC. Region 9690 produced a C6.1 long duration event peaking at 06:34, an M1.4 flare at 11:03, a C3.2 flare at 13:17, a C6.0/1F flare at 15:40, a C1.7 flare at 17:22, a C6.9 flare at 17:56 and a C3.5 flare at 19:16 UTC. Region 9687 generated a C3.1 flare at 14:10 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 12-13. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9685 2001.10.31 1 N03W87 0050 HAX 9686 2001.10.31 N15W78 plage 9687 2001.11.01 6 S20W53 0020 BXO 9688 2001.11.03 2 N25W32 0010 HRX 9689 2001.11.04 3 S26W76 0070 CAO 9690 2001.11.05 62 S18W09 1240 FKI beta-gamma-delta 9691 2001.11.07 1 N08E10 0100 HSX 9692 2001.11.07 13 N07W65 0670 EKO 9693 2001.11.07 1 N11W54 0000 AXX 9694 2001.11.07 3 N13E27 0070 HSX 9695 2001.11.10 2 N11E57 0090 CAO 9696 2001.11.10 7 S02E57 0070 DAO 9697 2001.11.11 1 N11E76 0120 HAX Total number of sunspots: 102 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.09 182.1 109.7 116.3 (-2.3) 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.8) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.9) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 (108.8 predicted, +1.2) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 (108.0 predicted, -0.8) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (106.7 predicted, -1.3) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (107.3 predicted, +0.6) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (106.7 predicted, -0.6) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (104.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 235.7 (1) 70.6 (2) (102.3 predicted, -1.7) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]