Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 11, 2001 at 04:55 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update October 16, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 10. Solar wind speed ranged between 380 and 492 km/sec. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 245.9, the planetary A index was 6 (3-hour K indices: 1100 2233, Boulder K indices: 1102). Region 9685 was quiet and stable. Region 9687 decayed further and could become spotless today or tomorrow. Over the last days it has become evident that the region is actually two regions. Region 9688 decayed further and could become spotless today. Region 9689 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9690 continues to stretch longitudinally and most of the attention is on the magnetically positive trailing spot group. This section of the region has a fairly thin negative polarity band running nearly all the way across it and setting up strong magnetic gradients. Major flares are possible and will likely originate from this feature. Region 9691 was quiet and stable. Region 9692 developed further early in the day, then began to decay fairly quickly. Minor M class flares are still possible. Region 9693 decayed quietly and could become spotless today. Region 9694 was quiet and stable. New region 9695 rotated into view at the northeast limb. New region 9696 rotated into view at the southeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 7 C and 2 M class events were recorded on November 10. Region 9690 produced an M1.0 flare at 00:50, a C4.6 flare at 06:45, a C4.9 flare at 09:25, a C4.0 flare at 13:21 and an M2.3/1F flare at 20:00 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1-C2 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 11-12. There is still a chance of a CME arriving following activity recorded on November 8. Should a CME arrive geomagnetic activity will likely increase to unsettled to minor storm levels. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9685 2001.10.31 1 N04W74 0050 HSX 9686 2001.10.31 N15W65 plage area and spot count 9687 2001.11.01 31 S21W44 0210 FAO way too high! Classification should be BXO 9688 2001.11.03 5 N24W19 0010 DSO 9689 2001.11.04 6 S25W63 0080 ESO Only 1 spot observed! 9690 2001.11.05 74 S18E04 1420 FKC beta-gamma-delta 9691 2001.11.07 1 N07E24 0110 HSX 9692 2001.11.07 23 N06W51 0740 EKI 9693 2001.11.07 1 N10W40 0000 AXX 9694 2001.11.07 1 N13E39 0080 HSX 9695 2001.11.10 2 N11E68 0080 CSO 9696 2001.11.10 3 S05E68 0060 DSO Total number of sunspots: 148 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.09 182.1 109.7 116.3 (-2.3) 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.8) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.9) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 (108.8 predicted, +1.2) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 (108.0 predicted, -0.8) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (106.7 predicted, -1.3) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (107.3 predicted, +0.6) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (106.7 predicted, -0.6) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (104.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 235.9 (1) 63.2 (2) (102.3 predicted, -1.7) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]