Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 9, 2001 at 03:00 UTC. Minor update posted at 10:03 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update October 16, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet on November 8. Solar wind speed ranged between 464 and 597 km/sec. A fairly being coronal stream is currently influencing the field. Solar flare activity was high. Solar flux was 247.8, the planetary A index was 5 (3-hour K indices: 2122 1221, Boulder K indices: 1221 2221). Region 9684 decayed further and is rotating quietly off the visible disk. Minor M class flares are possible. Region 9685 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9687 appears to be losing its magnetic delta structure in the central spot section following the flare activity decsribed below. Further M class flares are possible. Region 9688 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9689 decayed significantly and was quiet. Region 9690 developed further and is a complex region featuring a strong magnetic delta structure in the eastern part of the large leading spots section. The opposite polarity spots within that penumbra are very close to each other resulting in steep magnetic gradients. Very large flares are possible including major X class proton flares. Region 9691 was quiet and stable. Region 9692 developed quickly and is capable of minor M class flaring. The region became the second largest region on the disk by a large margin. Region 9693 was quiet and could already be decaying. Region 9694 was quiet and stable. Comment added at 10:03 UTC on November 9: Region 9690 has been very active today and has produced 4 M flares just in the last 5 hours. The first one was an M3.1 flare at approximately 05:38 UTC (see image), then an M1.0 event was observed at 06:28, an M3.3 flare at 08:56 (see image) and then a long duration M3.0 event peaking at 09:42 UTC. The latest available magnetograms indicate that the region is becoming even more complex with the formation of new magnetic delta structures. Flares and CMEs A total of 13 C and 4 M class events were recorded on November 8. Region 9690 produced a C7.7 flare at 00:25, a C4.8 flare at 03:21, a C9.2 flare at 04:08, a C6.1 flare at 07:50, a C5.0 flare at 10:11, an M1.3 flare at 12:29, an M4.2/2F long duration event peaking at 15:35 and a C3.2 flare at 20:33 UTC. Region 9687 generated a C4.8 flare at 02:09, a C4.9 flare at 05:27, a major impulsive M9.1/1N flare at 07:04 (accompanied by a strong type II sweep and likely a geoeffective CME which could impact Earth during the latter half of November 10), a C7.7 flare at 10:19 (accompanied by a weak type II radio sweep with a low estimated shock speed) and a C8.8 flare at 19:04 UTC (accompanied by a moderately strong type II radio sweep with a moderately high estimated shock speed). Region 9692 was the source of a C5.4 flare at 19:36 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C2-C3 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 9 and most of November 10. A CME could impact Earth during the latter half of Nov 10 and cause active to major storm conditions. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor to useless. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9684 2001.10.27 3 N06W82 0190 CAO beta-gamma 9685 2001.10.31 1 N05W46 0040 HSX 9686 2001.10.31 N15W39 plage 9687 2001.11.01 30 S19W18 0220 FAI beta-gamma 9688 2001.11.03 1 N26E07 0020 HSX 9689 2001.11.04 3 S26W38 0110 DSO 9690 2001.11.05 54 S18E31 1060 FKC beta-gamma-delta 9691 2001.11.07 1 N07E49 0090 HSX 9692 2001.11.07 18 N07W25 0120 DAO beta-gamma area too low 9693 2001.11.07 4 N12W12 0050 DAO 9694 2001.11.07 1 N14E65 0100 HSX Total number of sunspots: 130 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.09 182.1 109.7 116.3 (-2.3) 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.8) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.9) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 (108.8 predicted, +1.2) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 (108.0 predicted, -0.8) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (106.7 predicted, -1.3) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (107.3 predicted, +0.6) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (106.7 predicted, -0.6) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (104.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 230.3 (1) 48.8 (2) (102.3 predicted, -1.7) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]