Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 8, 2001 at 02:55 UTC. Minor update posted at 08:06 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update October 16, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on November 7. Solar wind speed ranged between 576 and 816 km/sec. Solar flare activity was high. Solar flux was 230.2 (the value measured at 20h UTC was flare enhanced and the 17h UTC measurement was used instead), the planetary A index was 15 (3-hour K indices: 5413 2223, Boulder K indices: 4423 4232). Region 9684 decayed further and has simplified. Minor M class flares are possible. Region 9685 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9687 has two fairly weak magnetic delta structures, one in the leading spots section, the other one in the central spot section. Minor M class flares are likely. Region 9688 was quiet and stable. Region 9689 began to decay slowly and is likely to remain quiet. Region 9690 has a very long east-west neutral line and two magnetic delta structures. Further major flares are likely. The region is developing slowly. New region 9691 rotated into view at the northeast limb. New region 9692 emerged in the northwest quadrant near the central meridian and has the potential to develop further. C class flares are possible. New region 9693 emerged in the northeast quadrant near the central meridian. New region 9694 rotated into view at the northeast limb. Comment added at 08:06 UTC on November 8: Reigon 9687 appears to have been the source of a major impulsive M9.1 flare at 07:04 UTC. A type II radio sweep was recorded as well and a geoeffective CME may have been produced (the absence of LASCO images until Nov. 9 makes it difficult to verify this). Flares and CMEs A total of 7 C and 5 M class events were recorded on November 7. Region 9690 produced an M1.1 flare at 01:46, a C7.5 flare at 02:59, an M1.4/1N flare at 04:44, an M2.0 flare at 09:33, a C4.4 flare at 15:35, a C5.1 flare at 18:10, a major M5.7/1N long duration event peaking at 20:01 and an M1.0 flare at 22:37 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C2-C3 level. Coronal holes An isolated coronal hole in the northern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on November 6. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 8 and quiet to active on November 9 under the influence of a coronal stream. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor to useless. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9684 2001.10.27 10 N06W68 0230 DAO beta-gamma 9685 2001.10.31 7 N06W29 0080 DSO 9686 2001.10.31 N15W26 plage 9687 2001.11.01 35 S20W02 0330 FKI beta-gamma-delta 9688 2001.11.03 8 N26E26 0060 ESO 9689 2001.11.04 15 S27W23 0160 DSO 9690 2001.11.05 37 S17E45 0850 FKC beta-gamma-delta 9691 2001.11.07 1 N07E64 0070 HAX 9692 2001.11.07 8 N07W10 0060 CSO 9693 2001.11.07 8 N11E03 0050 CAO 9694 2001.11.07 1 N14E79 0050 HSX Total number of sunspots: 130 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.09 182.1 109.7 116.3 (-2.3) 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.8) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.9) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 (108.8 predicted, +1.2) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 (108.0 predicted, -0.8) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (106.7 predicted, -1.3) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (107.3 predicted, +0.6) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (106.7 predicted, -0.6) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (104.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 227.8 (1) 41.6 (2) (102.3 predicted, -1.7) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]