Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 6, 2001 at 05:20 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update October 16, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on November 5. Solar wind speed ranged between 331 and 533 km/sec. A disturbance gradually intensified during the day. An exceptionally strong solar wind shock was observed at 01:15 UTC on November 6 at SOHO. Solar wind speed increased abruptly from 430 to 670 km/sec and the interplanetary magnetic field intensified greatly and initially swung fully (and extraordinarily strongly) southwards. This has caused very severe geomagnetic storming to occur early today. The planetary A index for the 00-03h UTC interval was 230! Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 234.6, the planetary A index was 13 (3-hour K indices: 0012 3454, Boulder K indices: 0022 4443). Region 9682 developed slowly and is rotating off the visible disk. A major flare is possible while the region is near the limb. Region 9684 appears to be slowly decaying but remains capable of producing another major flare. Region 9685 was mostly unchanged and quiet. Region 9687 did not change much and remains capable of M class flare production. Region 9688 was quiet and stable. Region 9689 developed further and could produce minor M class flares. New region 9690 rotated into view at the southeast limb and appears to be capable of generating major flares. The major proton event that began shortly after the X1 flare on November 4 appears to have peaked above 30000 pfu early on November 6. Flares and CMEs A total of 7 C and 4 M class events were recorded on November 5. Region 9687 produced an M1.7 flare at 02:50 and a C4.5 flare at 23:36 UTC. Region 9684 generated an M2.1/1N flare at 09:15 UTC. Region 9682 was the source of a C4.8 flare at 11:03 UTC, while region 9690 managed a C8.9 flare at 18:08 UTC. Optically unaccounted M1.2 flares occurred at 08:54 and 15:37 UTC respectively. The background x-ray flux is at the class C2-C3 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be active to very severe storm on November 6 and unsettled to major storm on November 7. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is useless (and will be useless most of this week). Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9682 2001.10.25 8 N13W75 0600 FKI beta-gamma 9684 2001.10.27 20 N07W40 0490 EKC beta-gamma-delta 9685 2001.10.31 12 N05W01 0080 DAI 9686 2001.10.31 N15E00 plage 9687 2001.11.01 31 S20E20 0340 FAC beta-gamma 9688 2001.11.03 4 N26E51 0080 FAO 9689 2001.11.04 8 S28E02 0130 DAO 9690 2001.11.05 6 S18E71 0600 DKO Total number of sunspots: 89 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.09 182.1 109.7 116.3 (-2.3) 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.8) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.9) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 (108.8 predicted, +1.2) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 (108.0 predicted, -0.8) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (106.7 predicted, -1.3) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (107.3 predicted, +0.6) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (106.7 predicted, -0.6) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (104.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 225.4 (1) 27.6 (2) (102.3 predicted, -1.7) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]