Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 5, 2001 at 05:10 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update October 16, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 4. Solar wind speed ranged between 283 and 338 km/sec. A weak solar wind shock was observed at SOHO at 01:55 UTC on November 5 with an abrupt increase in solar wind speed from 320 to 370 km/sec, this may have been associated with a partial halo CME observed late on November 1. Solar flare activity was high. Solar flux was 227.3, the planetary A index was 7 (3-hour K indices: 0023 3321, Boulder K indices: 0123 3321). Region 9682 is slowly decaying and has lost its magnetic delta structure. A major flare is still possible. Region 9684 has developed significantly and had a magnetic delta structure already on November 3 which indicated the possibility of the major flare which was recorded on November 4. Further major flares could be possible. Region 9685 having decayed now appears to be developing again. C flares are possible. Region 9686 decayed into spotless plage. Region 9687 is developing slowly and has a weak magnetic delta structure. M class flares are possible. Region 9688 rotated fully into view and was quiet. New region 9689 is emerging very quickly in the southeast quadrant and could soon be producing M class flares. A new region is rotating into view at the southeast limb and could be capable of M class flare production. Flares and CMEs A total of 5 C and 1 X class events were recorded on November 4. Region 9682 produced a C8.4/1N flare at 06:43 UTC. Region 9687 generated a C3.2 flare at 10:52, a C5.5 flare at 13:52 and a C5.1 flare at 15:41 UTC. Region 9684 was the source of a major X1.0/3B proton flare peaking at 16:20 UTC. A large and fast full halo CME was observed soon after the event, the CME will impact Earth, probably on November 6, and cause active to major storm conditions. A polar cap absorption event is in progress and the above 10 MeV proton flux is currently just above 3000 pfu. The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 5 and unsettled to major storm on November 6-7. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9682 2001.10.25 22 N12W64 0660 EKI beta-gamma 9683 2001.10.26 N27W88 plage 9684 2001.10.27 33 N05W28 0550 EKC beta-gamma-delta 9685 2001.10.31 19 N04E14 0060 DSO 9686 2001.10.31 N15E13 plage 9687 2001.11.01 39 S20E35 0390 FAC beta-gamma-delta 9688 2001.11.03 5 N26E64 0110 EAO 9689 2001.11.04 8 S28E15 0050 DAO Total number of sunspots: 126 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.09 182.1 109.7 116.3 (-2.3) 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.8) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.9) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 (108.8 predicted, +1.2) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 (108.0 predicted, -0.8) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (106.7 predicted, -1.3) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (107.3 predicted, +0.6) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (106.7 predicted, -0.6) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (104.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 223.1 (1) 22.3 (2) (102.3 predicted, -1.7) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]