Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 2, 2001 at 01:15 UTC. The next update will likely be at about 12h UTC on Sunday Nov. 4 as I will be attending a DXLC board meeting this weekend. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update October 16, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on November 1. Solar wind speed ranged between 309 and 386 km/sec, gradually decreasing throughout the day. The disturbance which started on October 31 intensified early in the day. The interplanetary magnetic field was southwards until early evening. Solar flare activity was high. Solar flux was 235.6, the planetary A index was 25 (3-hour K indices: 4454 5432, Boulder K indices: 4454 3331). Region 9678 decayed further and was mostly quiet. Region 9682 has a weak magnetic delta structure in the northern central spot section. The region has not changed much over the last day and could still produce major flares. Region 9684 was mostly quiet and stable. M class flares could be possible. Region 9685 developed slowly and could produce C class flares. Region 9686 was quiet and stable. New region 9687 rotated partly into view at the southeast limb. This region, or a region closely trailing it, is very active and is capable of producing major flares. Flares and CMEs A total of 5 C and 5 M class events were recorded on November 1. Region 9678, according to SEC/NOAA, produced an M1.3 flare at 06:53 UTC. It should be noted that region 9682 was fairly bright at the time and may have been the actual source of the flare. Region 9684 generated a C2.8 flare at 07:44 UTC. Region 9687 was the source of an M3.0 long duration event peaking at 12:20, a long duration M1.7 event peaking at 15:03 and an M1.5 flare at 19:58 UTC. Region 9682 produced the most interesting event of the day, a very long duration M1.1 event which peaked at 23:48 UTC. Early LASCO images indicate that a halo CME was produced. In that case the CME will likely impact Earth on November 4 and cause minor to major geomagnetic storming. The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 2-3 and unsettled to major storm on November 4. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9678 2001.10.23 12 N07W75 0290 EKO 9679 2001.10.23 S12W57 plage 9680 2001.10.23 N22W61 plage 9682 2001.10.25 45 N11W22 0980 EKC beta-gamma-delta 9683 2001.10.26 N27W48 plage 9684 2001.10.27 18 N06E14 0440 EKI 9685 2001.10.31 10 N06E55 0070 DSO 9686 2001.10.31 2 N15E54 0030 CRO 9687 2001.11.01 10 S19E71 0220 EAO beta-gamma Total number of sunspots: 97 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.09 182.1 109.7 116.3 (-2.3) 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.8) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.9) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 (108.8 predicted, +1.2) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 (108.0 predicted, -0.8) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (106.7 predicted, -1.3) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (107.3 predicted, +0.6) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (106.7 predicted, -0.6) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (104.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 235.6 (1) 5.2 (2) (102.3 predicted, -1.7) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]