:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts :Issued: 2001 Nov 07 2112 UT Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 October - 04 November 2001 Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. Region 9684 (N06, L=136, class/area, Ekc/550 on 04 November) produced a major flare, an X1/3b on 04/1620 UTC. A full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME), a Type II radio sweep (1329 km/sec), and a Type IV radio sweep were associated with this event. Region 9684 decayed slightly on the first day of the period then remained relatively unchanged until the last day when it, grew in area coverage, increased its spot count, and produced the major flare mentioned above. This region also developed a magnetic configuration of beta-gamma-delta, as the leader and trailer spots merged on 04 November. Region 9672 (S18, L=268, class/area Dki/590 on 26 October) produced a minor M-class flare on 29 October then rotated beyond the west limb on 30 October (for flare times and magnitudes, please refer to the Energetic Events and Optical Flares lists). Region 9678 (N07, L=221, area/class 680/Ekc on 26 October) produced an isolated minor M-class flare on 01 November and was in gradual decay from the beginning of the period until it rotated beyond the west limb on 02 November. Region 9682 (N12, L = 172, class/area Ekc/1210 on 31 October) showed continued growth from 29-31 October and produced numerous C-class and M-class flares throughout the period. This region started a slow decay from 03-04 November and is due to rotate beyond the west limb on 06 November. New Region 9687 (S19, L=75, class/area Fac/390 on 04 November) rotated onto the disc on 01 November and was very active, producing three M-class flares on 01 November. This region continued to grow at the close of the period, attaining a magnetic beta-gamma configuration. Solar Wind data were available from the NASA Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for most of the period. A weak shock passed the ACE spacecraft at 31/1253 UTC. Passage of this shock was marked by an increase in proton density, temperature and an 85 km/s jump in velocity (peak of 415 km/s). Total IMF field intensity rose to only 14 nT and a southward Bz was observed with a peak deflection to -9 nT (GSM). The source of this weak shock was most likely the result of an M class flare out of Region 9682 at 29/1113 UTC. A greater than 10 MeV proton flux event occurred at geosynchronous orbit on 04 November in the wake of major flare activity from Region 9684. The event began at 04/1705 UTC and at the close of this period was at a maximum flux of 1850 PFU. A greater than 100 MeV proton flux event also occurred at geosynchronous orbit, associated with the flare activity from Region 9684. This event commenced at 04/1650 UTC and reached a maximum level of 56 PFU at 04/2035 UTC. However, the greater than 10 MeV protons and greater than 100 MeV protons are expected to continue to rise into the next period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels through 03 November. Data late on 04 November and beyond were unreliable due to the effects associated with the solar energetic particle event mentioned above. The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels during the period. Most of the period was at quiet to active levels. On 01 November levels reached minor storm levels due to the effects of the weak shock that passed the ACE spacecraft on 31/1253 UTC. A 6 nT sudden impulse was observed at Boulder magnetometer at 31/1352 UTC. A major geomagnetic storm is expected to arrive on early 06 November due to the X1/3b flare on 04/1620 UTC. Detailed information on this event will appear in the next weekly summary. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 November - 03 December 2001 Solar activity is expected to range from moderate to high levels throughout the period. Continued low-level M-class flares are expected throughout the period. There will be a chance for isolated major flare activity during the period from Region 9684 and Region 9687. Region 9684 is due to rotate out of view around 07 November. X-ray imagery indicate the possible appearance of a large energetic region on the south east limb in the first few days of the forecast period. Old Region 9672 is due to return to the visible disc on about 12 November and old Region 9678 is due to return on about 16 November. Greater than 10 MeV and greater than 100 MeV proton events are still in progress at the end of the summary period due to the X1/3b flare on 04/1620 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV event is expected to drop below event threshold on 07 November and the greater than 10 MeV event is expected to drop below threshold by 08-09 November. Proton levels are expected to be a normal levels throughout the rest of the period barring a major proton producing flare. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels during most of the period. Unsettled to minor storm geomagnetic field conditions are expected to occur on 07 November due to trailing effects of a CME passage on 06/0150 UTC. Barring an Earth-directed CME quiet to unsettled conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the period. .