:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2001 Oct 16 2112 UT
HIGHLIGHTS OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
08 - 14 OCTOBER 2001

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT MODERATE LEVELS DUE TO A SINGLE M-CLASS EVENT
DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 9653 (S22, L = 083, CLASS/AREA DKC/220 ON
09 OCTOBER) PRODUCED AN M1/2F EVENT AT 09/1113 UTC. THIS EVENT HAD
ASSOCIATED TYPE II (VELOCITY EST. 504 KM/S) AND TYPE IV RADIO
SWEEPS. A FULL-HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME) ALSO ACCOMPANIED
THIS EVENT, AS SEEN BY LASCO IMAGERY. THE ONLY OTHER REGION OF NOTE
DURING THE PERIOD, WAS REGION 9661 (N15, L = 358, CLASS/AREA DKO/670
ON 14 OCTOBER). THIS SUNSPOT GROUP WAS THE LARGEST AND MOST ACTIVE
REGION DURING THE PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED
M1/2F EVENT. REGION 9661 MAINTAINED A RELATIVELY LARGE AND
MODERATELY COMPLEX MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION (BETA-DELTA) SINCE ITS
ARRIVAL ON THE DISC ON 10 OCTOBER. DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD, ONLY ISOLATED SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS WERE REPORTED (FOR FLARE
TIMES AND MAGNITUDES, PLEASE REFER TO THE ENERGETIC EVENTS AND
OPTICAL FLARES LISTS).

SOLAR WIND DATA WERE AVAILABLE FROM THE NASA ADVANCED COMPOSITION
EXPLORER (ACE) SPACECRAFT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. A CME PASSAGE,
FROM THE 09/1113 UTC M1/2F EVENT, OCCURRED ON 11 OCTOBER. THE
INITIAL SHOCK CREATED AN INCREASE IN SOLAR WIND SPEED OF
APPROXIMATELY 150 KM/SEC. VELOCITIES AS HIGH AS 600 KM/SEC WERE
REPORTED ALONG WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF SOUTHWARD IMF BZ WITH MAXIMUM
DEFLECTIONS TO MINUS 20 NT (GSM). CME EFFECTS SUBSIDED DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF 12 OCTOBER.

THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX WAS ENHANCED FROM 08 TO 11
OCTOBER. THIS WAS DUE TO THE RESIDUAL EFFECTS OF A GREATER THAN 10
MEV PROTON EVENT THAT ENDED ON 05 OCTOBER. THE PROTON FLUX WAS AT
BACKGROUND LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT RANGED
FROM NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS SLIGHTLY DISTURBED DURING 08 - 09 OCTOBER
DUE TO HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM EFFECTS. UNSETTLED TO MINOR
STORM LEVELS OCCURRED ON 11 OCTOBER DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE CME
CREATED DURING THE M1/2F EVENT OF 09 OCTOBER. THE CME ARRIVAL
PRODUCED AN 11 NT SUDDEN IMPULSE, AS MEASURED BY THE USGS BOULDER
MAGNETOMETER, AT APPROXIMATELY 11/1700 UTC. THE GEOMAGNETIC
DISTURBANCE CONTINUED INTO 12 OCTOBER, CREATING UNSETTLED TO MAJOR
STORMING. FIELD ACTIVITY DECLINED TO MOSTLY QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS
AFTER 12/1800 UTC. THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD CLOSED OUT THE PERIOD ON 14
OCTOBER WITH QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
17 OCTOBER - 12 NOVEMBER 2001

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS.
ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITY DURING 15 - 30 OCTOBER WITH
THE RETURN OF OLD REGIONS 9628 (S18, L = 292, CLASS/AREA FKC/880 ON
24 SEPTEMBER) AND 9632 (S19, L = 272, CLASS/AREA DKI/790 ON 24
SEPTEMBER). BOTH REGIONS HAD A HISTORY OF ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE
PRODUCTION.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A PROTON EVENT DURING 15 - 30
OCTOBER WITH THE RETURN OF OLD REGIONS 9628 AND 9632.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING MOST OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, HIGH FLUX LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND 28
OCTOBER.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS, BARRING AN EARTH-DIRECTED CME. ACTIVE CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING 26 - 27 OCTOBER DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.


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