Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update October 30, 2001 at 02:50 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update October 3, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update October 3, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update October 3, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update October 16, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active on October 29. Solar wind speed ranged between 374 and 472 km/sec. Solar flare activity was high. Solar flux was 215.8, the planetary A index was 16 (3-hour K indices: 3343 4333, Boulder K indices: 3343 4333). Region 9672 decayed slowly and is rotating off the visible disk. Region 9673 was quiet and stable, as was region 9676. Region 9677 decayed and was spotless by early evening. Region 9678 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9679 decayed slowly and could become spotless today or tomorrow. Region 9680 decayed and was spotless by early afternoon. Region 9681 was quiet and stable. Region 9682 developed slowly and is capable of producing major flares. Region 9683 was quiet and stable. Region 9684 was quiet and mostly unchanged. M class flares are possible. Flares and CMEs A total of 10 C and 5 M class events were recorded on October 29. Region 9682 produced a C2.8 flare at 00:44, an M1.6/1N flare at 11:33, a C6.7 flare at 13:35, a C3.0 flare at 15:48. a C8.7/1N flare at 16:34, a C2.6 flare at 17:39, a C3.1 flare at 18:47, a C4.9 flare at 19:38, a C3.6 flare at 20:30 and an M1 flare at 23:58 UTC. Region 9672 generated an M1.0/1F flare at 08:14 UTC. A region just behind the northwest limb was the source of an M1.3 flare at 01:59 and an M3.6/1F flare at 11:13 UTC. The latter flare was wrongly attributed to region 9682 by SEC/NOAA, LASCO EIT images strongly points to the region behind the northwest limb as the source. Moreover the flare was associated with a weak type II sweep and may have been associated with a narrow and dense CME which was observed soon afterwards off the northwest limb. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on October 30 and quiet to unsettled on October 31. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9672 2001.10.18 4 S18W81 0260 HKX 9673 2001.10.18 2 N05W76 0080 HAX 9675 2001.10.20 S12W51 plage 9676 2001.10.20 1 N15W49 0030 HSX 9677 2001.10.21 2 N24W49 0000 AXX now spotless 9678 2001.10.23 28 N08W34 0560 EKO beta-gamma 9679 2001.10.23 11 S10W21 0030 CAO 9680 2001.10.23 4 N22W22 0010 BXO now spotless 9681 2001.10.25 1 S23W51 0040 HAX 9682 2001.10.25 42 N12E18 0910 EKC beta-gamma-delta 9683 2001.10.26 5 N28W14 0010 CRO 9684 2001.10.27 14 N06E54 0510 DKI Total number of sunspots: 114 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.09 182.1 109.7 116.3 (-2.3) 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.8) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 (107.7 predicted, +2.9) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 (108.1 predicted, +0.4) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 (106.3 predicted, -1.8) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (105.1 predicted, -1.2) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (105.7 predicted, +0.6) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (105.1 predicted, -0.6) 2001.10 207.0 (1) 183.6 (2) (102.3 predicted, -2.8) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]