Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last update July 5, 2001 at 04:50 UTC.
Please note: I will be on  vacation July 6-24. No charts will be updated during 
that time, occasional text updates may be posted.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update July 2, 2001)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update July 2, 2001)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update July 2, 
2001)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update April 8, 
2001)]
Recent development
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on July 4. Solar wind speed ranged 
between 347 and 421 km/sec. A fairly weak coronal stream has been in progress 
since early on July 4.
Solar flare activity was very low. Solar flux was 127.0, the planetary A index 
was 8 (3-hour K indices: 2212 3323, Boulder K indices: 2212 3323). Region 9516 
was quiet and stable and will rotate off the visible disk on July 5. Region 9518 
reemerged with a few spots, no spots are visible early on July 5. Region 
9523 decayed slowly and was quiet. Regions 9525, 9526, 9527 and 9528 were quiet 
and stable, region 9526 appeared to be spotless early on July 5. Region 9529 was 
quiet and stable.
Flares and CMEs
No flaring of significance was observed on July 4.
The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level.
Coronal holes
No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions.
Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on July 5-6, possibly 
with isolated active intervals, and quiet to unsettled on July 7-9. Long 
distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and 
upper middle latitudes is fair.
Coronal holes (1)Coronal mass ejections (2)M and X class flares (3)
    
    
    1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Active solar regions (Recent map)
Solar regionDate numberedActual no. sunspotsLocation at 
            midnightAreaClassificationComment
    95162001.06.231N11W800120HSX
    95182001.06.273S50W370030BXO 
    95192001.06.27 N18W67  plage
    95202001.06.27 S10W66  plage
    95212001.06.28 S06W30  plage
    95222001.06.28 S08W14  plage
    95232001.06.296S50W230070DAO
    95242001.06.30 N15W13  plage
    95252001.06.308N20E230070DAO
    95262001.07.011N08E240010HSXspotless?
    95272001.07.014S17E360120CAO
    95282001.07.022N04E320040CAO
    95292001.07.031N07E580080HAX
    Total number of sunspots:26 
    
    Monthly solar data
MonthAverage solar fluxInternational sunspot numberSmoothed sunspot 
            number
    2000.03208.2138.5119.9 (+3.1)
    2000.04184.2125.5120.8 (+0.9)
            cycle 23 sunspot max.
    2000.05184.9121.6119.0 (-1.8)
    2000.06179.8124.9118.7 (-0.3)
    2000.07202.3170.1119.7 (+1.0)
    2000.08163.0130.5118.6 (-1.1)
    2000.09182.1109.7116.2 (-2.4)
    2000.10167.499.4114.5 (-1.7)
    2000.11178.8106.8112.8 (-1.7)
    2000.12173.6104.4112.1 (-0.7)
    2001.01166.695.6(109.6 predicted, -2.5)
    2001.02146.680.6(104.8 predicted, -4.8)
    2001.03177.7113.5(101.2 predicted, -3.6)
    2001.04177.7108.2(100.0 predicted, -1.2)
    2001.05147.197.3(99.3 predicted, -0.7)
    2001.06173.0134.0(96.6 predicted, -2.7)
    2001.07132.2 (1)15.4 (2)(94.7 predicted, -1.9)
    
    1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. 
The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own 
observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar 
links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.



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