Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last update July 4, 2001 at 03:25 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update July 2, 2001)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update July 2, 2001)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update July 2, 
2001)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update April 8, 
2001)]
Recent development
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on July 3. Solar wind speed ranged 
between 358 and 435 km/sec.
Solar flare activity was very low. Solar flux was 131.9, the planetary A index 
was 9 (3-hour K indices: 1223 3333, Boulder K indices: 1223 2232). Region 9513 
decayed and was spotless by noon. Region 9515 rotated off the visible disk. 
Region 9516 was quiet and stable. Region 9522 was spotless most of the day. 
Region 9523 developed slowly and was quiet. Regions 9525, 9526, 9527 and 9528 
were quiet and stable. New region 9529 rotated into view at the northeast limb.
Flares and CMEs
No flaring of significance was observed on July 3.
The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level.
Coronal holes
No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions.
Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on July 3-6. Long 
distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and 
upper middle latitudes is fair.
Coronal holes (1)Coronal mass ejections (2)M and X class flares (3)
    
    
    1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Active solar regions (Recent map)
Solar regionDate numberedActual no. sunspotsLocation at 
            midnightAreaClassificationComment
    95132001.06.212N22W800030HSX 
    95152001.06.231S06W910000AXX 
    95162001.06.231N10W660110HSX
    95182001.06.27 S48W25  plage
    95192001.06.27 N18W54  plage
    95202001.06.27 S10W53  plage
    95212001.06.28 S06W17  plage
    95222001.06.281S08W010010HRXnow spotless
    95232001.06.299S48W130080DSO
    95242001.06.30 N15E02  plage
    95252001.06.305N20E340050CAO
    95262001.07.011N09E370010AXXnow spotless
    95272001.07.016S17E500130CAO
    95282001.07.025N06E470050CAO
    95292001.07.031N07E720080HAX
    Total number of sunspots:32 
    
    Monthly solar data
MonthAverage solar fluxInternational sunspot numberSmoothed sunspot 
            number
    2000.03208.2138.5119.9 (+3.1)
    2000.04184.2125.5120.8 (+0.9)
            cycle 23 sunspot max.
    2000.05184.9121.6119.0 (-1.8)
    2000.06179.8124.9118.7 (-0.3)
    2000.07202.3170.1119.7 (+1.0)
    2000.08163.0130.5118.6 (-1.1)
    2000.09182.1109.7116.2 (-2.4)
    2000.10167.499.4114.5 (-1.7)
    2000.11178.8106.8112.8 (-1.7)
    2000.12173.6104.4112.1 (-0.7)
    2001.01166.695.6(109.6 predicted, -2.5)
    2001.02146.680.6(104.8 predicted, -4.8)
    2001.03177.7113.5(101.2 predicted, -3.6)
    2001.04177.7108.2(100.0 predicted, -1.2)
    2001.05147.197.3(99.3 predicted, -0.7)
    2001.06173.0134.0(96.6 predicted, -2.7)
    2001.07133.9 (1)11.9 (2)(94.7 predicted, -1.9)
    
    1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. 
The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own 
observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar 
links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.



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