:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2001 Jun 26 2112 UT
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
18 - 24 June 2001

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. Activity was at
moderate levels on the first day of the period due to an M2/2n
parallel-ribbon flare from Region 9506 (N18, L = 111, class/area
Fki/720 on 16 June). Region 9506, which possessed a minor degree of
magnetic complexity, also produced C-class subflares during most
days. It appeared to enter a decay phase on the last day of the
period. Activity dropped to low levels during 19 - 21 June with
isolated to occasional C-class flares. Activity increased to high
levels on 22 June as Region 9503 (N15, L = 139 class/area Fai/550 on
19 June) produced an impulsive M6/1n flare at 22/2222 UTC with minor
radio emission. Region 9503 showed gradual development prior to the
major flare with a magnetic delta configuration observed within its
trailer spots on 21 June. It began to gradually decay following the
M6 flare and was approaching the west limb at the close of the
period. Activity remained high on 23 June due to two major flares
from Region 9511 (N10, L = 067, class/area Dao/110 on 23 June). The
first was an M5/1n at 23/0015 UTC and the second an X1/1b at 23/0408
UTC. Both flares were impulsive with minor radio emission. Region
9511 exhibited very rapid growth following its emergence on 22 June
and had developed a magnetic delta configuration prior to the major
flares. Activity dropped to low levels on the last day of the period
with isolated C-class flares mostly from Region 9511, which entered
a decay phase.

Data were available from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE)
spacecraft for most of the period. A recurrent high speed stream
(associated with a positive polarity coronal hole) was observed
during 19 - 21 June. Velocities reached as high as 850 km/sec during
this stream. No disturbances were observed during the rest of the
period.

There were no proton events during the period. However, proton flux
enhancements at greater than 10 MeV and greater than 100 MeV were
detected on 19 June, possibly associated with activity from beyond
the west limb.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels during 18 - 20 June, then increased to
moderate to high levels for the rest of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to minor storm levels on
18 June. Intermittent active periods occurred during 19 - 21 June
due to coronal hole effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions occurred
during the rest of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
27 June - 23 July 2001

Solar activity is expected to range from low to moderate levels.
Isolated M-class flares are expected during the period. There will
be an increased chance for isolated major flare activity during the
latter half of the forecast period.

No proton events are expected during the period. However, there will
be an increased chance for a proton event during the latter half of
the forecast period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels during most of the
period. However, there will be a chance for high levels around 30
June - 01 July and 07 - 08 July.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
during most of the period, barring an Earth-directed CME. However,
active levels will be possible during 28 - 29 June, 06 - 07 July,
and 16 - 17 July due to coronal hole effects.


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