:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2001 Jun 19 2112 UT
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
11 - 17 June 2001

Solar activity alternated between low and high levels. Activity
reached high levels on 13 and 15 June due to two major flares from
Region 9502 (S25, L = 155, class/area Dso/160 on 14 June). The first
was an M7/1n at 13/1142 UTC and the other an M6/1n at 15/1013 UTC.
Both flares were impulsive with minor radio emission. Region 9502
was unremarkable in terms of size and structure and entered a
gradual decay phase on 17 June. Solar activity was low during the
rest of the period with isolated to occasional C-class flares. Other
events of note included a C6/1n at 12/0719 UTC from Region 9488
(S18, L = 288, class/area Cko/290 on 04 June) associated with a Type
II radio sweep and a minor proton enhancement at greater than 10
MeV; a long-duration C6/Sf flare at 14/0943 UTC associated with a
partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME), and a CME from beyond the
west limb on 15 June associated with a proton event at greater than
10 MeV.

Data were available from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE)
spacecraft for most of the period. A transient structure passed the
spacecraft during 14 - 15 June. Minor increases in velocity and
density occurred during the passage, which commenced at
approximately 14/2000 UTC. IMF Bz took a southward turn beginning
approximately 14/2100 UTC, then remained southward into the early
hours of 15 June with maximum deflections to minus 07 nT (GSM).
Nominal solar wind conditions occurred during the rest of the
period.

A proton event at greater than 10 MeV occurred during 15 - 16 June
following an event from beyond the west limb. The event began at
15/1750 UTC, reached a maximum of 26 PFU at 16/0005 UTC, and ended
at 16/1210 UTC.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels during the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels
until late on 14 June. Active conditions occurred during 14/2100 -
2400 UTC associated with the CME passage described above. Quiet to
unsettled levels occurred during the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
20 June - 16 July 2001

Solar activity is expected to range from low to moderate levels
during the period. Isolated M-class flares will be possible during
the period.

No proton events are expected during the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels during most of the
period. However, there will be a chance for high levels around 30
June and 07 - 08 July.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
during most of the period, barring an Earth-directed CME. However,
active levels will be possible around 29 June and 06 - 07 July due
to coronal hole effects.


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