Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 29, 2001 at 04:00 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 3, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 4, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 4, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update April 8, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to slightly unsettled on June 28. Solar wind speed ranged between 339 and 382 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 140.2, the planetary A index was 5 (3-hour K indices: 0012 2322, Boulder K indices: 0001 1121). Region 9511 decayed and could become spotless today or tomorrow. Region 9512 decayed further and was mostly quiet. Region 9513 decayed slowly and had only a couple of spots left by midnight. Region 9514 decayed further and could become spotless today. Region 9515 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9516 was quiet and stable. Region 9518 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 9519 decayed and was spotless by the end of the day. New region 9521 emerged in the southeast quadrant but was spotless by early evening. New region 9522 rotated into view at the southeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 2 C class events were recorded on June 28. Region 9512 produced a C1.5 flare at 03:45. Region 9511 generated a C1.0 flare at 20:22 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level. Coronal holes An extension of a southern hemisphere coronal hole could rotate into a geoeffective position on June 30. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on June 29-30. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight AreaClassification Comment 9511 2001.06.20 6 N10W54 0030 DSO 9512 2001.06.21 5 S22W68 0060 CAO 9513 2001.06.21 9 N22W10 0090 DAO 9514 2001.06.22 3 N17W14 0010 BXO 9515 2001.06.23 6 S05W23 0060 CSO 9516 2001.06.23 3 N12E01 0120 CSO 9518 2001.06.27 3 S47E34 0030 DSO 9519 2001.06.27 5 N18E11 0020 BXO now spotless 9520 2001.06.27 S10E12 plage 9521 2001.06.28 2 S06E48 0010 AXX now spotless 9522 2001.06.28 1 S08E66 0030 HSX Total number of sunspots: 43 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.1) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 (+0.9) cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.7 (+1.0) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 118.6 (-1.1) 2000.09 182.1 109.7 116.2 (-2.4) 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.7) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.8 (-1.7) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 (111.1 predicted, -1.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 (107.6 predicted, -3.5) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 (102.8 predicted, -4.8) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 (99.2 predicted, -3.6) 2001.04 177.7 108.2 (98.0 predicted, -1.2) 2001.05 147.1 97.3 (97.3 predicted, -0.7) 2001.06 175.5 (1) 189.6 (2) (94.6 predicted, -2.7) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Do you know about the survey which will be held this Summer among the listeners of WWV and WWVH? There is information about this survey at 16 minutes past the hour on WWV and at 47 minutes past the hour on WWVH. If you want to participate send an email with your name and address. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]