Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 23, 2001 at 05:20 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 3, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 4, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 4, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update April 8, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 22. Solar wind speed ranged between 394 and 613 km/sec. Solar flare activity was high. Solar flux was 203.6, the planetary A index was 7 (3-hour K indices: 2212 3223, Boulder K indices: 2211 3323). Region 9501 decayed further and is rotating off the visible disk. Region 9503 decayed significantly and could be capable of producing another major flare. Region 9504 decayed slowly and was quiet. A minor M class flare is still possible. Region 9505 decayed and was spotless by early afternoon. Region 9506 decayed further and was quiet. Minor M class flares are possible. Region 9509 was mostly unchanged and could generate further C class flares. Region 9510 was quiet and stable. Region 9511 developed extremely quickly and has a magnetic delta within the central penumbra. Further major flares are possible as long as the region remains fairly small. Region 9512 developed quickly and was quiet. Minor M class flares are possible. Region 9513 was quiet and stable but may be capable of producing M class flares. New region 9514 at the northeast limb was numbered but could actually be a part of region 9513. Flares and CMEs A total of 5 C and 3 M class events were recorded on June 22. Region 9503 produced a C4.2 flare at 09:29 and a major impulsive M6.2/1N flare at 22:22 UTC, the latter flare does not appear to have been associated with a significant CME. Region 9509 generated a C4.5/1F flare at 14:33 and a C2.6 flare at 17:29 UTC. Region produced its first flare at 18:28 UTC, a C6.0 event. Then a C5.5 flare was observed at 20:28 with the first M flare, an M1.7 event, occurring at 21:22 UTC. An M1.1 flare began at 23:57 and peaked at 00:01 UTC on June 23. Region 9511 has been incredibly active early on June 23 producing its first major flare at 00:15 UTC, an impulsive M5.6/1N event. Amazingly this was followed by an X1.2 flare at 04:08 UTC, less than 10 hours after the first flare noted from this region. It's too early to tell if the X class flare was associated with a geoeffective CME. Further major flaring from this region could result in significant CMEs aimed at Earth. A weak full halo CME was first observed in LASCO C3 images at 13:42 UTC. The source of this CME was likely on the backside of the sun. The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level. Coronal holes A coronal hole to the south of region 9511 will rotate into a geoeffective position on June 23-24. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on June 23-24. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9500 2001.06.11 N12W75 plage 9501 2001.06.11 2 S13W78 0050 HSX 9502 2001.06.12 S27W56 plage 9503 2001.06.13 29 N17W46 0380 FAI beta-gamma 9504 2001.06.13 4 N09W42 0260 DKO 9505 2001.06.14 1 N21W34 0000 AXX now spotless 9506 2001.06.14 15 N19W18 0280 FSI beta-gamma 9507 2001.06.15 N12W66 plage 9509 2001.06.19 12 S10W45 0070 DSO 9510 2001.06.20 4 S07W64 0040 DSO 9511 2001.06.20 8 N10E25 0040 DSO beta-gamma-delta 9512 2001.06.21 13 S22E17 0110 DAO beta-gamma 9513 2001.06.21 4 N22E66 0120 DAO beta-gamma 9514 2001.06.22 1 N17E65 0040 HSX Total number of sunspots: 93 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.1) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 (+0.9) cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.7 (+1.0) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 118.6 (-1.1) 2000.09 182.1 109.7 116.2 (-2.4) 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.7) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.8 (-1.7) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 (111.1 predicted, -1.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 (107.6 predicted, -3.5) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 (102.8 predicted, -4.8) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 (99.2 predicted, -3.6) 2001.04 177.7 108.2 (98.0 predicted, -1.2) 2001.05 147.1 97.3 (97.3 predicted, -0.7) 2001.06 176.1 (1) 150.7 (2) (94.6 predicted, -2.7) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Do you know about the survey which will be held this Summer among the listeners of WWV and WWVH? There is information about this survey at 16 minutes past the hour on WWV and at 47 minutes past the hour on WWVH. If you want to participate send an email with your name and address. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]