Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 16, 2001 at 05:10 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 3, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 4, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 4, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update April 8, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 15. Solar wind speed ranged between 312 and 378 km/sec. Solar flare activity was high. Solar flux was 196.9, the planetary A index was 12 (3-hour K indices: 3333 3323, Boulder K indices: 3332 3222). Region 9489 was quiet and stable and is rotating off the visible disk. Regions 9491, 9492 and 9493 all decayed slowly and were mostly quiet. Region 9495 was mostly unchanged and quiet. A minor M class flare is still possible. Region 9497 decayed and was spotless by the end of the day. Region 9498 was quiet and stable, the region was decaying during the latter half of the day. Region 9499 decayed slowly and was quiet. Regions 9500 and 9501 were mostly unchanged and quiet. Region 9502 again produced a major flare. The region does not change much from day to day but could produce further M class flares. Region 9503 developed quickly and could soon expand into one or two of neighboring regions 9504, 9505 and 9506. The region is becoming fairly complex and could be the source of major flares. Region 9504 was mostly unchanged and quiet. Region 9505 was quiet and stable. Region 9506 is still rotating into view and appears to be a very complex region with several areas of intermixing magnetic polarities. Major flares could originate from this region. New region 9507 emerged in the northeast quadrant. Flares and CMEs A total of 7 C and 2 M class events were recorded on June 15. Region 9502 produced a C3.8 flare at 06:41 and an M6.3/1N major flare at 10:13 UTC. A partial halo CME was observed off the south limbs and the south pole after the major flare. The CME is likely not geoeffective. Region 9492 generated a C4.5 flare at 07:04 UTC. Region 9501 was the source of a C2.2 flare at 16:20 UTC. Region 9506 produced an M2.5 flare at 10:32 UTC and a C9.9/1F flare at 22:26 UTC. A full halo CME was observed beginning just before 16h UTC in LASCO C3 images. The source of this CME was most probably behind the southwest limb and may have been source of the halo CME observed on June 14 as well. A moderate type II radio sweep was recorded coincident with the observation of the CME and a weak proton event began shortly afterwards. June 14: A full halo CME was observed in LASCO C3 images. The front of the CME first appeared at the west limb in LASCO C2 images at 10:30 UTC, fairly coincident with the above long duration C6.5 event in region 9489. LASCO EIT images are not conclusive as to whether the LDE was the source of the CME, however, there appears to be too little movement for what would have been a wide CME. The source of the CME may have been a backside event. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on June 16-17, possibly with isolated active intervals. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9489 2001.06.05 4 N20W80 0130 DSO 9490 2001.06.05 S16W82 plage 9491 2001.06.05 2 N24W53 0070 HSX 9492 2001.06.06 3 N21W52 0040 CSO 9493 2001.06.06 3 N06W41 0080 ESO 9495 2001.06.08 12 N05W59 0140 DAO 9497 2001.06.10 1 S10W35 0020 AXX 9498 2001.06.10 9 N24W08 0070 DAO 9499 2001.06.11 1 N19W41 0060 HSX 9500 2001.06.11 7 N09E18 0080 DAO 9501 2001.06.11 5 S13E15 0080 DSO 9502 2001.06.12 14 S25E32 0160 DSO beta-gamma 9503 2001.06.13 24 N15E46 0290 EAI beta-gamma 9504 2001.06.13 5 N07E51 0290 CKO 9505 2001.06.14 3 N23E59 0120 DAO 9506 2001.06.14 6 N17E67 0180 CAO beta-gamma-delta? 9507 2001.06.15 5 N13E26 0040 CSO Total number of sunspots: 104 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.1) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 (+0.9) cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.7 (+1.0) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 118.6 (-1.1) 2000.09 182.1 109.7 116.2 (-2.4) 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.7) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.8 (-1.7) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 (111.1 predicted, -1.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 (107.6 predicted, -3.5) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 (102.8 predicted, -4.8) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 (99.2 predicted, -3.6) 2001.04 177.7 108.2 (98.0 predicted, -1.2) 2001.05 147.1 97.3 (97.3 predicted, -0.7) 2001.06 164.3 (1) 95.6 (2) (94.6 predicted, -2.7) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Do you know about the survey which will be held this Summer among the listeners of WWV and WWVH? There is information about this survey at 16 minutes past the hour on WWV and at 47 minutes past the hour on WWVH. If you want to participate send an email with your name and address. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]