Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 15, 2001 at 03:35 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 3, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 4, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 4, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update April 8, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on June 14. Solar wind speed ranged between 321 and 376 km/sec. A minor disturbance was observed beginning at 20:30 UTC at ACE. There was a slight increase in solar wind speed and a more noticeable increase in solar wind density. The source of this disturbance is unknown. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 194.7, the planetary A index was 9 (3-hour K indices: 2112 2334, Boulder K indices: 2101 1124). Region 9487 was mostly unchanged and quiet, the region is rotating off the visible disk. Region 9488 was quiet and stable and is rotating over the southwest limb. Region 9489 developed slowly and may be capable of minor M class flaring. Region 9491 was quiet and stable, as were regions 9492 and 9493. Region 9495 developed slowly and may be capable of producing a minor M class flare. Region 9497 is decaying and could become spotless today. Region 9498 developed slowly and was quiet. Region 9499 was quiet and stable, as were regions 9500 and 9501. Region 9502 stabilized and is less complex than it was a day ago. No flares were observed but the region is capable of producing C flares and perhaps a minor M class flare. Regions 9503 and 9504 were quiet and developed slowly, both regions could produce M class flares. New regions 9505 and 9506 rotated partly into view at the northeast limb. Region 9506 appears capable of M class flaring. Flares and CMEs A total of 5 C class events were recorded on June 14. Region 9489 produced a C3.4 flare at 03:49 and a long duration C6.5 event peaking at 09:43 UTC. Region 9495 generated a C4.4 flare at 17:03 UTC. A full halo CME was observed in LASCO C3 images. The front of the CME first appeared at the west limb in LASCO C2 images at 10:30 UTC, fairly coincident with the above long duration C6.5 event in region 9489. LASCO EIT images are not conclusive as to whether the LDE was the source of the CME, however, there appears to be too little movement for what would have been a wide CME. The source of the CME may have been a backside event. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on June 15 and quiet to unsettled on June 16. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9487 2001.06.02 3 N23W82 0140 CRO 9488 2001.06.03 1 S17W82 0040 HSX 9489 2001.06.05 9 N20W69 0160 EAO beta-gamma 9490 2001.06.05 S16W69 plage 9491 2001.06.05 3 N28W40 0090 CSO 9492 2001.06.06 4 N21W41 0060 DSO 9493 2001.06.06 3 N07W28 0080 FSO 9495 2001.06.08 13 N06W46 0130 DAO 9497 2001.06.10 5 S09W23 0030 DSO 9498 2001.06.10 10 N24E05 0060 DSO 9499 2001.06.11 4 N20W26 0060 CSO 9500 2001.06.11 7 N10E31 0080 DAO 9501 2001.06.11 4 S13E28 0070 CSO 9502 2001.06.12 12 S26E45 0160 DAO beta-gamma 9503 2001.06.13 14 N15E59 0250 EAO 9504 2001.06.13 7 N07E63 0320 CKO 9505 2001.06.14 3 N22E73 0060 BXO 9506 2001.06.14 1 N17E79 0050 HSX Total number of sunspots: 103 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.1) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 (+0.9) cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.7 (+1.0) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 118.6 (-1.1) 2000.09 182.1 109.7 116.2 (-2.4) 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.7) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.8 (-1.7) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 (111.1 predicted, -1.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 (107.6 predicted, -3.5) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 (102.8 predicted, -4.8) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 (99.2 predicted, -3.6) 2001.04 177.7 108.2 (98.0 predicted, -1.2) 2001.05 147.1 97.3 (97.3 predicted, -0.7) 2001.06 161.9 (1) 86.8 (2) (94.6 predicted, -2.7) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Do you know about the survey which will be held this Summer among the listeners of WWV and WWVH? There is information about this survey at 16 minutes past the hour on WWV and at 47 minutes past the hour on WWVH. If you want to participate send an email with your name and address. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]