Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 14, 2001 at 03:20 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 3, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 4, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 4, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update April 8, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on June 13. Solar wind speed ranged between 339 and 411 km/sec. Solar flare activity was high. Solar flux was 181.4, the planetary A index was 14 (3-hour K indices: 3443 2332, Boulder K indices: 3342 3202). Region 9487 was mostly unchanged and quiet, the region will rotate off the visible disk on June 15 (as will region 9488). Region 9488 was quiet and stable. Region 9489 decayed slowly and produced several flares. Region 9491 was quiet and stable, as were regions 9492 and 9493. Region 9494 was quiet and rotated off the visible disk. Region 9495 was spotless early in the day, then began to develop quickly and could soon become capable of minor M class flaring. Region 9497 was quiet and stable. Region 9498 developed slowly and was quiet. Region 9499 was quiet and stable, as were regions 9500 and 9501. Region 9502 developed slowly and has fairly strong magnetic gradients in its northeastern part. Further M class flares are possible. New regions 9503 and 9504 rotated into view at the northeast limb. Region 9504 appears capable of producing M class flares. Flares and CMEs A total of 8 C and 2 M class events were recorded on June 13. Region 9502 produced an M2.0/1F flare at 04:33 and a major M7.8/1N flare at 11:42 UTC (with an associated fairly narrow CME off the southeast limb). Region 9489 was the source of a C3.7 flare at 08:27 (with an associated weak type II radio sweep), a C9.1 flare at 16:28 (again accompanied by a weak type II radio sweep) and a C7.6 flare at 19:57 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on June 14-15. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9485 2001.06.01 S23W84 plage 9487 2001.06.02 4 N22W68 0120 DAO 9488 2001.06.03 1 S18W70 0060 HSX 9489 2001.06.05 4 N20W55 0090 DAO 9490 2001.06.05 S16W56 plage 9491 2001.06.05 4 N27W27 0100 CSO 9492 2001.06.06 5 N21W28 0080 DAO 9493 2001.06.06 3 N07W15 0100 FAO 9494 2001.06.08 2 S07W88 0120 HSX 9495 2001.06.08 8 N05W34 0030 CRO 9496 2001.06.09 N08W88 plage 9497 2001.06.10 4 S10W12 0020 CRO 9498 2001.06.10 4 N23E18 0060 DSO 9499 2001.06.11 4 N19W12 0060 DSO 9500 2001.06.11 6 N09E43 0060 CAO 9501 2001.06.11 2 S15E42 0090 CAO 9502 2001.06.12 5 S26E58 0150 DSO beta-gamma 9503 2001.06.13 4 N13E68 0160 CSO 9504 2001.06.13 1 N06E76 0140 HSX Total number of sunspots: 61 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.1) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 (+0.9) cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.7 (+1.0) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 118.6 (-1.1) 2000.09 182.1 109.7 116.2 (-2.4) 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.7) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.8 (-1.7) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 (111.1 predicted, -1.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 (107.6 predicted, -3.5) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 (102.8 predicted, -4.8) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 (99.2 predicted, -3.6) 2001.04 177.7 108.2 (98.0 predicted, -1.2) 2001.05 147.1 97.3 (97.3 predicted, -0.7) 2001.06 159.4 (1) 77.7 (2) (94.6 predicted, -2.7) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Do you know about the survey which will be held this Summer among the listeners of WWV and WWVH? There is information about this survey at 16 minutes past the hour on WWV and at 47 minutes past the hour on WWVH. If you want to participate send an email with your name and address. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]