Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 13, 2001 at 04:00 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 3, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 4, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 4, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update April 8, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to slightly unsettled on June 12. Solar wind speed ranged between 432 and 472. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 166.4, the planetary A index was 7 (3-hour K indices: 2222 2232, Boulder K indices: 2121 1231). Region 9487 decayed and produced a couple of flares. Region 9488 decayed further and had only a single spot left by the end of the day. Region 9489 decayed further and was quiet. Region 9491 was quiet and stable. Region 9492 decayed further and was mostly quiet. Region 9493 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9494 decayed further and is rotating off the visible disk. Region 9495 decayed quickly and could become spotless today. Region 9497 decayed further and could become spotless today. Region 9498 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 9499 was quiet and stable, as were regions 9500 and 9501. New region 9502 rotated into view at the southeast limb. An interesting region is currently rotating into view at the northeast limb. It appears capable of at least minor M class flaring and is currently the most active region. Flares and CMEs A total of 12 C class events were recorded on June 12. Region 9492 produced a C1.2 flare at 00:36 UTC. Region 9487 generated a C1.7 flare at 07:09 and a C2.1 flare at 12:57 UTC. Region 9488 was the source of a C6.7/1N flare at 07:19 UTC. A weak type II radio sweep was associated with this event. Region 9494 produced a C2.9 flare at 17:04 UTC. The unnumbered region at the northeast limb produced a C5.1 flare at 04:30 and a C6.0 flare at 21:38 UTC as well as several minor C flares. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on June 13-14. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9485 2001.06.01 S23W71 plage 9487 2001.06.02 3 N22W55 0120 CAO 9488 2001.06.03 2 S18W56 0040 CSO 9489 2001.06.05 9 N20W42 0100 CSO 9490 2001.06.05 S16W43 plage 9491 2001.06.05 3 N26W14 0100 CSO 9492 2001.06.06 5 N21W15 0100 DAO 9493 2001.06.06 3 N07E00 0090 FSO 9494 2001.06.08 5 S07W81 0320 EAO 9495 2001.06.08 3 N05W30 0010 BXO 9496 2001.06.09 N08W75 plage 9497 2001.06.10 5 S09E02 0020 CRO 9498 2001.06.10 2 N23E31 0030 CSO 9499 2001.06.11 6 N18E03 0040 DSO 9500 2001.06.11 3 N10E57 0070 CSO 9501 2001.06.11 1 S15E55 0060 HAX 9502 2001.06.12 3 S25E68 0140 DAO Total number of sunspots: 53 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.1) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 (+0.9) cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.7 (+1.0) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 118.6 (-1.1) 2000.09 182.1 109.7 116.2 (-2.4) 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.7) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.8 (-1.7) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 (110.5 predicted, -2.3) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 (106.8 predicted, -3.7) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 (102.4 predicted, -4.4) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 (98.8 predicted, -3.6) 2001.04 177.7 108.2 (97.6 predicted, -1.2) 2001.05 147.1 97.3 (96.9 predicted, -0.7) 2001.06 157.6 (1) 70.3 (2) (94.2 predicted, -2.7) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Do you know about the survey which will be held this Summer among the listeners of WWV and WWVH? There is information about this survey at 16 minutes past the hour on WWV and at 47 minutes past the hour on WWVH. If you want to participate send an email with your name and address. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]