Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 12, 2001 at 04:10 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 3, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 4, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 4, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update April 8, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 11. Solar wind speed ranged between 432 and 560. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 162.4, the planetary A index was 10 (3-hour K indices: 3312 3333, Boulder K indices: 3302 3312). Region 9487 decayed and was mostly quiet. Region 9488 decayed further and was mostly quiet, only a few spots are visible early on June 12. Region 9489 is decaying fairly quickly and has lost most of its flare potential. Region 9491 was quiet and stable. Region 9492 decayed further and was quiet. Region 9493 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9494 is decaying slowly. There is still some potential for a minor M class flare. Region 9495 was quiet and stable. Region 9496 decayed and was spotless by the end of the day. Region 9497 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 9498 developed slowly and was quiet. New region 9499 emerged in the northeast quadrant. New region 9500 rotated into view at the northeast limb and could produce at least C class flares. New region 9501 rotated into view at the southeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 9 C class events were recorded on June 11. Region 9494 produced a C2.3 flare at 00:20 UTC. Region 9489 generated a C2.0 flare at 14:46 UTC while region 9488 managed a C4.3 flare at 20:52 UTC. A long duration C5.0 event peaking at 04:29 and a long duration C7.1 event peaking at 05:52 UTC had their origins at the southeast limb. The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on June 12-14. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location region numbered sunspots at AreaClassification Comment midnight 9485 2001.06.01 S23W58 plage 9487 2001.06.02 8 N21W43 0110 CAO area and 9488 2001.06.03 15 S19W45 0140 CSI spot count too high 9489 2001.06.05 21 N17W30 0260 EKI 9490 2001.06.05 S16W30 plage 9491 2001.06.05 1 N25W03 0110 HSX 9492 2001.06.06 11 N20W02 0140 DAO 9493 2001.06.06 6 N06E12 0110 FAO 9494 2001.06.08 11 S08W69 0430 DKI beta-gamma 9495 2001.06.08 9 N04W16 0060 DSO 9496 2001.06.09 1 N08W62 0010 BXO now spotless 9497 2001.06.10 9 S09E14 0030 CAO 9498 2001.06.10 7 N24E46 0070 CAI 9499 2001.06.11 6 N18E17 0050 CAO 9500 2001.06.11 3 N10E71 0090 DAO 9501 2001.06.11 1 S14E69 0050 HSX Total number of sunspots: 109 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.1) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 (+0.9) cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.7 (+1.0) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 118.6 (-1.1) 2000.09 182.1 109.7 116.2 (-2.4) 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.7) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.8 (-1.7) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 (110.5 predicted, -2.3) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 (106.8 predicted, -3.7) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 (102.4 predicted, -4.4) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 (98.8 predicted, -3.6) 2001.04 177.7 108.2 (97.6 predicted, -1.2) 2001.05 147.1 97.3 (96.9 predicted, -0.7) 2001.06 156.8 (1) 63.9 (2) (94.2 predicted, -2.7) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Do you know about the survey which will be held this Summer among the listeners of WWV and WWVH? There is information about this survey at 16 minutes past the hour on WWV and at 47 minutes past the hour on WWVH. If you want to participate send an email with your name and address. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]