Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 9, 2001 at 03:55 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 3, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 4, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 4, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update April 8, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 8. Solar wind speed ranged between 354 and 421 km/sec. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 180.2, the planetary A index was 8 (3-hour K indices: 2222 2233, Boulder K indices: 2222 3223). Region 9484 was quiet and stable. Region 9486 decayed slowly and rotated off the visible disk early today. Region 9487 developed a few more spots and may be capable of producing occasional minor M class flares. Region 9488 decayed and was quiet most of the day. Region 9489 developed further and could produce C flares. Region 9491 was quiet and stable. Region 9492 developed slowly and could generate a minor M class flare. Region 9493 was quiet and stable. New region 9494 was finally numbered as it continued to emerge very quickly in the southwest quadrant. The region grew into the largest region on the disk by midnight and has a magnetic delta configuration in its trailing section. Further minor M class flares are likely and there is a possibility of major flares should the current rate of development continue. New region 9495 in the northeast quadrant continued to emerge but at a slower rate than on the previous day when it was first observed. Two other new regions were not numbered by SEC/NOAA, a CSO region was at N07W15 at midnight while an AXX region was at S10E49 at midnight. Flares and CMEs A total of 11 C and 1 M class events were recorded on June 8. Region 9488 produced a C6.0/1N flare at 02:28 UTC. A moderate type II radio sweep was recorded. The event occurred near the central meridian and the associated CME was observed in LASCO C3 as a halo CME. It is likely to impact Earth sometime between noon on June 10 and the early hours of June 11 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions, possibly with isolated major storm intervals. Region 9494 generated a C7.2 flare at 16:03, an M1.0/1F flare at 19:27 and a C1.9 flare at 22:16 UTC. A long duration C7.5 event peaked at 23:24 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on June 8-9 due to a coronal stream. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9482 2001.05.30 S16W69 plage 9484 2001.06.01 4 S06W61 0150 CAO 9485 2001.06.01 S23W19 plage 9486 2001.06.02 3 N27W87 0090 DSO 9487 2001.06.02 11 N22W03 0170 CAO 9488 2001.06.03 15 S19W09 0140 EAI beta-gamma 9489 2001.06.05 10 N17E08 0070 DAO beta-gamma 9490 2001.06.05 S12E09 plage 9491 2001.06.05 1 N24E37 0140 HSX 9492 2001.06.06 11 N19E36 0230 DAO beta-gamma 9493 2001.06.06 6 N05E51 0130 EAO 9494 2001.06.08 11 S08W30 0130 DAO beta-gamma-delta 9495 2001.06.08 7 N04E24 0090 DAO Total number of sunspots: 79 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.1) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 (+0.9) cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.7 (+1.0) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 118.6 (-1.1) 2000.09 182.1 109.7 116.2 (-2.4) 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.7) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.8 (-1.7) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 (110.5 predicted, -2.3) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 (106.8 predicted, -3.7) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 (102.4 predicted, -4.4) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 (98.8 predicted, -3.6) 2001.04 177.7 108.2 (97.6 predicted, -1.2) 2001.05 147.1 97.3 (96.9 predicted, -0.7) 2001.06 152.8 (1) 40.0 (2) (94.2 predicted, -2.7) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Do you know about the survey which will be held this Summer among the listeners of WWV and WWVH? There is information about this survey at 16 minutes past the hour on WWV and at 47 minutes past the hour on WWVH. If you want to participate send an email with your name and address. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]