Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 8, 2001 at 02:35 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 3, 2001)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 4, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 4, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update April 8, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 7. Solar wind speed ranged between 347 and 438 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 164.8, the planetary A index was 12 (3-hour K indices: 2323 3333, Boulder K indices: 2323 3332). Region 9475 decayed further and had only a single, small spot left by noon. The region is rotating over the west limb. Region 9484 decayed significantly losing most of its spots. Region 9486 decayed quickly and was quiet, the region will rotate off the visible disk on June 9. Region 9487 was quiet and stable and may be capable of producing occasional minor M class flares. Region 9488 developed more spots but simplified magnetically. A minor M class flare is still possible. Region 9489 developed slowly and was quiet. Region 9491 was quiet and stable. Region 9492 developed slowly and may be capable of producing a minor M class flare. Region 9493 was quiet and stable. SEC/NOAA failed to number two new regions, one that emerged near S08W10 before noon and one that emerged quickly near N01E40 at noon. Flares and CMEs A total of 8 C class events were recorded on June 7. Region 9488 produced a C1.1 flare at 08:13 UTC. Region 9484 generated a C2.5 flare at 16:14 UTC. The strongest flare of the day, a C6.4 event at 20:07 UTC was not optically correlated. A fairly small filament eruption in the southwest quadrant near the central meridian was observed during the evening. It is uncertain if there was a CME associated with this event. The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level. Coronal holes A coronal hole in the northern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on June 4-6. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on June 8-9 due to a coronal stream. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9475 2001.05.26 1 N18W85 0060 HAX 9480 2001.05.28 S13W81 plage 9482 2001.05.30 S16W56 plage 9484 2001.06.01 9 S06W47 0160 CAO 9485 2001.06.01 S23W06 plage 9486 2001.06.02 4 N28W74 0100 DSO 9487 2001.06.02 6 N22E09 0250 HKX 9488 2001.06.03 33 S18E04 0220 EAI beta-gamma 9489 2001.06.05 7 N18E24 0100 DAO 9490 2001.06.05 S12E22 plage 9491 2001.06.05 1 N24E50 0140 HSX 9492 2001.06.06 7 N19E50 0120 CAO 9493 2001.06.06 5 N06E64 0130 ESO Total number of sunspots: 73 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.1) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 (+0.9) cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.7 (+1.0) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 118.6 (-1.1) 2000.09 182.1 109.7 116.2 (-2.4) 2000.10 167.4 99.4 114.5 (-1.7) 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.8 (-1.7) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 (110.5 predicted, -2.3) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 (106.8 predicted, -3.7) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 (102.4 predicted, -4.4) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 (98.8 predicted, -3.6) 2001.04 177.7 108.2 (97.6 predicted, -1.2) 2001.05 147.1 97.3 (96.9 predicted, -0.7) 2001.06 148.9 (1) 34.1 (2) (94.2 predicted, -2.7) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Do you know about the survey which will be held this Summer among the listeners of WWV and WWVH? There is information about this survey at 16 minutes past the hour on WWV and at 47 minutes past the hour on WWVH. If you want to participate send an email with your name and address. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]